Drones in combat are changing warfare

The Russian-Ukraine war is redefining how future wars will be fought with the lessons learned being written in the blood of soldiers on both sides as well as that of Ukrainian civilians.

The heavy tank losses by Russia — reliable sources indicate they have lost at least 3,000 tanks — have already shown how traditional armored forces are susceptible to anti-tank missiles.

But the drones have taken center stage in this war. Stories from multiple sources indicate that movement on the battlefield, even by individual troops, is quickly spotted by drones and even a single soldier can be targeted and killed by drones. This makes the movement of troops or equipment not only highly visible, but also highly vulnerable to attack.

Any military commander knows that his chance of victory is enhanced by the element of surprise. Achieving surprise on the battlefield improves the chances of victory in either a battle or the war as a whole.

Drones have made such undetected movement impossible. Both Ukraine and Russia have used drones extensively and have turned the battle in Ukraine into a stalemate of trenches and foxholes, not unlike the horrors that led to the long, brutal trench warfare of World War I.

The United States Army, not surprisingly, has recognized this as well and is eliminating the cavalry scout combat specialty and reorganizing those troops into other units because drone surveillance has rendered the cavalry scout mission redundant.

The casualties in the Russia-Ukraine war are staggering and at least partially the result of this new feature of ground combat. Reliable intelligence sources estimate Russia's combat dead at a minimum of 50,000 soldiers. Ukraine admits to 31,000 combat deaths. The Russian casualties are likely much higher and may exceed 100,000 deaths.

Vladimir Putin keeps funneling men and equipment into the pointless war. A recent report indicated some Russian troops are refusing orders to attack in the Kherson region of Ukraine. A news story indicated that soldiers were deserting and fleeing the battle area. A story published by Newsweek said the soldiers who had been found in hiding had multiple tattoos and might well have been conscripts taken from prison and sent to the front with little to no training.

Other news sources indicate that some of the tanks now being sent to Ukraine by Russia are ancient leftovers from the 1950s and '60s. Russia, even in World War II, took a quantity over quality approach to their tank production. The legendary T34 battle tank that ultimately helped defeat Germany was notorious among soldiers as being poorly built and unreliable. The Soviet high command knew from the rates of destruction of their armored forces that the tanks didn't have to be built to last long-term. They simply needed to make more than the Germans could destroy.

That philosophy is still part of the Russian mindset if it can be judged by their approach to sending these ancient tanks that have little to no chance to survive on the modern battlefield into action. It also indicates the complete disregard that the Russian high command, specifically Vladimir Putin, has for

the lives of Russian soldiers.

Imagine the United States in such a war. How would the American public tolerate a military campaign that cost the lives of 100,000 of our soldiers in two years of combat? Such horrific numbers in such a short time have not been seen since World War II, a war everyone hopes was the last such conflict.

There is likely an answer to the drones. I’m quite certain if American military planners were not aware of this change in the combat environment before, they are certainly aware now. The vaunted military-industrial complex in the West is very likely already producing a counter to the drone problem.

Some battle strategies are fundamental to success. When new technology produces a stalemate that grinds armies to dust, those technologies will be countered. It has been so since the beginning of warfare. If one group develops a weapon, be it a better sword or a remotely piloted drone, the other side will develop a counter to it.

When American developed the atomic bomb that helped end World War II, leaders in this nation thought it gave us a decade before any other country could produce their own bomb. But the Soviets were working very hard to steal the technology and succeeded so that their own bombs were being produced by the end of the 1940s.

The drone has transformed the battlefield in Ukraine, creating a high-tech stalemate that has eviscerated two armies. You can be absolutely certain other nations are paying close attention and strategists in every nation in the world are learning and adapting to this new environment of continual surveillance.

The one virtually universal truth is that the next war will bring innovations and changes to the battlefield. The way the previous wars were fought will not be the way the next war will be fought and the nation or nations that adapt to this idea first will be in a far better position to win than the nation that fails to adapt.

Gary Cosby Jr. can be reached at gary.cosby@tuscaloosanews.com