Safe, accessible voting options are important
Even among his political base in California, President Donald Trump will find few allies in his fight against voting by mail.
Historically, there has not been significant partisan disagreement over voting by mail in the Golden State, because Republicans, Democrats and independents alike have used it more and more over decades and are now embracing the option especially strongly in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Support for casting mail ballots this November is unprecedentedly high and notably bipartisan in California’s electorate, our new survey of 12,276 eligible voters shows. It is one of the few issues in our state that brings the parties together, rather than divides them.
Most Californians want to cast a ballot sent to them through the mail this fall. As a whole, 52% of California’s eligible voters prefer to mail in their ballot, while another 18% prefer to use a mail ballot but drop it off at a vote center or drop box. Together, 70% of California’s electorate prefer a mail ballot — a higher number than in past general elections, and much higher than in the nation overall.
A question that always looms in these polarized times is whether a change in how people vote will change who votes, tilting the playing field in favor of either party. Trump raised the issue when he said the process of voting by mail “doesn’t work out well for Republicans.”
But research on prior elections in California has shown that when counties shift toward voting by mail, these transitions have no impact on each party’s turnout or vote share. Has a divide opened up this year in how voters aligned with the Democratic and Republican parties prefer to cast their ballots?
When we asked California’s eligible voters how they wanted to cast their ballots this November, we found no significant differences along party lines. Majorities of Republicans, Democrats and independents alike prefer to vote by mail. We also found no evidence that a move to conducting elections primarily through the mail in California would be likely to bring any partisan bias. When we asked likely voters whether they would turn out if voting by mail was their only option, nearly identical percentages of Democrats (2.8%) and Republicans (2.7%) responded that they wouldn’t vote in this type of election.
The fact that California’s long-standing bipartisan embrace of voting by mail has continued this year is vital, now that state and local elections officials face the daunting dilemma of how to hold a presidential election during a pandemic.
Using data and our long experience with different methods of voting, our state can come together to meet the bipartisan demand from voters for mail ballots and to redesign voting sites to ensure a safe and accessible voting option for every Californian.
Mindy Romero is a political sociologist and director of the California Civic Engagement Project at the Price School of Public Policy at the University of Southern California, msromero@usc.edu. Thad Kousser is a professor and chair of the Department of Political Science at UC San Diego and a leader of the new electorate project. org research collaboration, tkousser@mail.ucsd.edu.
Most Californians want to cast a ballot sent to them through the mail this fall. As a whole, 52% of California’s eligible voters prefer to mail in their ballot, while another 18% prefer to use a mail ballot but drop it off at a vote center or drop box.