Heat holds 2-1 East finals lead, but has issues to fix
After the first three games of the Eastern Conference finals, the Miami Heat holds a 2-1 series lead over the Boston Celtics. In the end, that's the number that matters.
But there are other numbers that indicate the Celtics have actually been the better team in the series for more minutes than the Heat. It's just that two impressive second-half comebacks from double-digit deficits have resulted in two Miami wins.
Boston has outscored Miami in eight of the 12 regulation quarters and has outscored Miami by a combined score of 332-329 in the series.
Boston has held the lead for 101 of the 144 regulation minutes.
Boston has posted the better offensive rating and defensive rating in the series, outscoring Miami by one point per 100 possessions.
All of the numbers are fairly close because the series is very competitive, but the Celtics hold the edge in a lot of them through the first three games except for when it comes to wins.
“All in all, we just have to play harder, play more together and be more locked in,” Heat All-star wing Jimmy Butler said. “Not going to say that we thought that this was going to be easy because that's not the case, but we've got to put up a lot more fight from the jump and be the nastier team. Be the more scrappier team.”
With a three-day gap between Saturday's Game 3 loss and Wednesday's important Game 4, the Heat has plenty of room to improve even with the series lead. Boston and Miami both took Sunday off and did not practice.
Defense, which was a strength for the Heat in the first two rounds of the playoffs, will likely be No. 1 on the list of things to improve.
The Heat has allowed 113.3 points per 100 possessions in the East finals. For context, only four NBA teams finished the regular season with a worse defensive rating.
Boston is shooting an efficient 47.3% from the field in the East finals, a team shooting percentage that would have ranked fourth-best in the regular season. Most of that damage is coming from inside the arc, as the Celtics have only averaged 11.3 made threes per game in the series.
“We wanted to really attack,” Celtics coach Brad Stevens said after Game 3. “If we're putting it on the floor, we want to get to the rim and make a play for ourselves or others.”
Boston outscored the Heat 60-36 in the paint in Game 3. It's the most paint points Miami has allowed this postseason and just the fourth time it has allowed 60 or more paint points this entire season, with the Celtics shooting 16 of 31 from midrange and 56% from inside the paint in the series.
“Lacking communication,” center Bam Adebayo said of the Heat's defensive issues. “I said it before the series, this is a series where you have to guard your yard. Sixty points in the paint is not guarding our yard. We want to get back in the gym and figure this out.”
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Four Celtics players are averaging 20 points or more in the East finals: Jayson Tatum (25.3 points per game), Jaylen Brown (21.3), Kemba Walker (21) and Marcus Smart (20). And forward Gordon Hayward made a difference in his first game back from a sprained right ankle, finishing Game 3 with six points, five rebounds and four assists in 31 minutes off the bench.
“We didn't play hard enough,” Butler said after the Heat's Game 3 loss. “I think we didn't do anything that we said that we were going to do. We knew how they were going to attack us. We weren't helping each other. We weren't making an extra pass a lot of the time. We have to play basketball the way we have been playing the games that we have been winning. We understand that.
“There's nothing that coach can say. There's nothing that OG (Udonis Haslem) can say. We get it. We have to be the ones to fix that.”
Despite all of this, the Heat is still 10-2 this postseason and is closer to the NBA Finals than the Celtics. That's important to remember.
But even after the first two wins of the series, coach Erik Spoelstra was not happy with Miami's uneven play. After Game 1, Spoelstra said “we were getting our asses kicked going into the fourth quarter,” and he said after Game 2 that “we didn't impose our will at all in the first half. They didn't feel us, notice us. We were just out there defensively.”
That spotty play caught up to the Heat on Saturday.
“I think we're playing well. I think we can play better,” Butler said. “I love going to work with these guys, though. I say it time and time again. Now we really see what we're made of. They won a game. You can say that they have the momentum. Now it's up to us to come in and win the next one. We're definitely capable of it. We have a lot to fix and we've got to get back to playing basketball the way we know how.”
With three days between Games 3 and 4, the Heat has some time to address those issues.
“I don't know,” Spoelstra said when asked how he'll handle the mini-break before Game 4. “I'll figure that out. Got some time. It will be good. I want our guys thinking about this.”