Past MLB labor strife suggests lockout could last
If history repeats, baseball’s labor discord easily would extend into March before both sides finally decide to budge. Until further notice, there are no deadlines, target dates or time frames.
We’ve been down this road before. The 1995 season was played following a 232-day players’ strike and a mere three-week spring training, and maybe that’s a perfectly fine blueprint for 2022. Four weeks, tops.
As owners and players again fight over money — owners receive an abundance of it, players want their fair share, and the issues are all about how it’ll be divided — fans would like to know when baseball will be played, both in spring training and the season.
Much can be gained from history, which tells us this could go down to the buzzer as it did in 1995. One day before the season was supposed to open with replacement players, the strike ended when then-u.s. District Court Judge Sonia Sotomayor issued an injunction against the owners for unfair labor practices.
Players returned to the field, and the expired labor agreement was to be observed until a new one replaced it. Three weeks later, after an abbreviated spring training, a 144-game season began. Twenty-six years later, we’re here again with no apparent rush on either side to cut a deal.
There was a time six weeks of spring training was fully embraced because players needed it all to get into shape. Now they show up in shape, so the idea of a six-week training camp has become antiquated.
We got to the point where there were two basic rea
sons for a six-week camp, to pump revenue into Arizona and Florida communities and to give starting pitchers time to build up their stamina and pitch count. Position players and relievers never needed six weeks.
Well, scratch the second reason. Starting pitchers no longer need to amp up for a seven-, eight- or nine-inning workload out of spring training because most don't last that long at any point in the regular season anyway.
So if negotiations remain stalled until well after the Super Bowl, realize history is repeating and that nothing needs to get done until owners' revenues and players' salaries are threatened, and only then is action required.
Around the majors
• I asked A’s general manager David Forst what would happen if new Padres manager Bob Melvin wanted to hire Mark Kotsay as a coach, and Forst said, “I think Kotsay would rather get a shot to be our manager.”
It's another indication Kotsay seems to top the leaderboard of candidates for the A's managing gig. Forst thinks highly of Kotsay and likes that he has had several different A's coaching roles, including quality control coach, in which he worked with both the coaching staff and front office.
Ryan Christenson is joining Melvin's new staff. Oakland's bench coach last season had been one of the A's managerial candidates. Kotsay would fit in nicely as Melvin's replacement because he's a respected leader and familiar with the organization's inner working and thinking.
Another A's candidate deserving of a long look is Red Sox bench coach Will Venable, whose resume should soon help him land a bigleague managing job.
Venable is young (39). He played (nine seasons, mostly in San Diego). He has pedigree (his dad, Max, played 12 seasons, mostly as a Giant). He coached (Cubs, Red Sox). He worked in a front office (Cubs). And this is what modern-thinking teams should really like — he's an Ivy Leaguer (Princeton).
As a bonus, at least in his A's pursuit, Venable is local and grew up in San Rafael. He was a candidate for the Giants' job that went to Gabe Kapler two years ago.
• The busiest division before the lockout was the American League West, and the Rangers were especially active when signing a new double-play tandem, Corey Seager and Marcus Semien, along with pitcher Jon Gray and outfielder Kole Calhoun.
The Mariners added current Cy Young Award-winner Robbie Ray and All-star second baseman Adam Frazier, the Angels starter Noah Syndergaard and reliever Aaron Loup (also re-signing closer Raisel Iglesias), and the Astros starter Justin Verlander and reliever Hector Neris, though the Verlander deal apparently isn't official because it wasn't announced before the shutdown.
The only silent team was the A's. It's worrisome for A's fans, already experiencing the torture of the stadium mess but also facing the realistic possibility of a roster teardown and uncompetitive 2022 season.
Will the A's drop into last place? Will they still be better than the Angels and Rangers? We'll know more once a decision is known on whether they'll dramatically slash payroll and trade key core players to restock their farm system, especially on the pitching front.
On the other hand, facing a tougher division, perhaps the A's will be further convinced to rebuild. Either way, 2022 promises to be a long season.
• The Mets have six candidates for their managing gig, and we wonder what's taking so long to hire Buck Showalter, the heavy favorite. Yes, he's old school. Yes, he's one of the usual suspects.
It's always nice to see youth and diversity. But in this case, Showalter would be perfect for the Mets, who have been a disaster. This is a team screaming out for an experienced leader with a record of discipline, structure and accountability.
Owner Steve Cohen is building (or buying) a team that should contend next season now that Max Scherzer is aboard along with a couple of valuable former A's outfielders, Starling Marte and Mark Canha, as well as infielder Eduardo Escobar.
Among the other candidates, only Bob Geren and Brad Ausmus have big-league managing experience, and A's fans don't recall Geren's term in Oakland with any joy.
• It’s silly that the Mets didn’t interview Bruce Bochy. He'd be a calming force in the pressure cooker of New York and a major asset for a team trying to swipe headlines from the Yankees.
On the other hand, Bochy didn't exactly leave the Padres on good terms many moons ago, back when Sandy Alderson took over the Padres and gave Bochy permission to talk to other clubs after the 2006 season, which basically meant Alderson would be bringing in new people.
Bochy got an interview with the Giants, and the rest is history. Alderson now is the Mets' president and recently hired Billy Eppler as the GM to make the hire.