Why Carlos Rodón is the Giants’ most important free agent target
Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge, Aaron Judge.
No matter who you ask, the Giants’ offseason is all about the free-agent slugger and Northern California native.
Judge, who slugged 62 homers for the Yankees last season, has been so frequently tied to the Giants that it almost feels as if whether or not he signs with San Francisco is a direct referendum on Farhan Zaidi’s tenure in charge of personnel.
But there is another free agent with Giants ties that would tell us so much more about the Zaidi administration and where this organization fits in the Major League hierarchy.
You might have missed it Sunday, but Carlos Rodón opted out of the player-option year on his Giants contract. The Giants will extend him the qualifying offer in short order, but he’ll decline that, too.
Rodón is a free agent, looking for a new, big-money, long-term contract, and the Giants need to
do everything in their power to bring him back to San Francisco.
The Giants signed Rodón to a one-plus-year prove-it deal last offseason — a coup for a team that lost Kevin Gausman in a blitz of a post-lockout free-agent period.
Rodón did more than prove it in 2022 for the Giants. He struck out one out of every three batters he faced, and allowed 12 home runs
all year. In 178 innings pitched, Rodón had an ERA of 2.88. It was ace stuff, following a brilliant year for the White Sox in 2021.
Over the last two seasons, you cannot name more than five starting pitchers who have been better than Rodón, who has a sub-1 WHIP and a 2.67 ERA in his last 55 starts, while playing in two leagues.
He deserves the pile of cash that is coming his way.
The Giants should be the team to give it to him.
Yes, the Giants need a slugger like Judge to compete with the Dodgers and Padres (and maybe even the Diamondbacks?) in the National League West. Though it should be noted that the Giants only scored 21 fewer runs than the title-winning Astros this season. Offense isn’t this team’s No. 1 issue.
But pitching is always vital to winning, and the Giants need a top-of-the-rotation arm to pair with Logan Webb.
I also get the feeling it will be even more important to have guys with elite strikeout stuff — like Rodón — in the post-shift world baseball is about to enter. (It’s going to be a lot tougher to get outs when you can’t play three dudes in right field anymore. Best to have some nasty stuff.)
And while the Giants were able to pluck Rodón out of free agency when Gausman — their previous ace — left for big money in Toronto, how many times can Zaidi go to the draw pile and pull out an ace?
I’m not smart enough to count cards, but I know that two have already been pulled out of the deck.
The Giants don’t have an inhouse replacement for Rodón, either. They won’t for a while yet.
So while, yes, it’s risky to pay pitchers big money — what, with their fickle elbow ligaments and all — it’s even riskier for the Giants to enter the 2023 season without another top-line starter.
Rodón might be a free agent, but he represents the most direct route to filling that much-needed role.
Let’s also establish that the Giants signing both Judge and Rodón this offseason is completely possible. The team has the money.
In fact, the Giants can sign three or four top-flight free agents this offseason — if they want — and stay under baseball’s de-facto salary cap. The Giants’ projected payroll for players currently on the roster is roughly $124 million, per Fangraphs and MLB Trade Rumors. The competitive balance tax threshold — that de-facto salary cap — is set at $233 million for the 2023 season.
That’s more than $100 million to spend this offseason. And the Giants should spend every penny.
So bring on Judge, Rodón, and toss in a Trea Turner, Xander Bogaerts, or Carlos Correa, too.
Money cannot be considered an issue for this Giants team. Not if the organization wants to still be considered a true big-market team and charge close to $20 for beer.
Rodón is expected to command more than $30 million a year as a free agent. With his injury history, he’s unlikely to command a five-year deal or longer.
Four years, $120 million — front-loaded? That’s more than doable for the Giants. But other teams will be in at that number, too.
And this is why I view Rodón as the bellwether of Zaidi’s Giants’ administration.
By all accounts, the Giants and Rodón’s test drive in 2022 went great. Rodón knows what Zaidi and Gabe Kapler are about. He has relationships with the coaches and his teammates. He’s publically acknowledged that he enjoys the Bay Area and can foresee himself being a full-time Northern Californian.
And the Giants know Rodón, too. They know that he’s the kind of player that can lift a team and a fanbase all season long.
Truth be told, this shouldn’t be a complicated deal to make.
So if it’s not made, that’s concerning.
Judge’s only real connection to the Giants is that he grew up outside of Stockton and that Zaidi might offer him a ton of money.
There’s no relationship there — no shared experience.
It’s not to say that the two can’t and shouldn’t get together — I want the Giants to sign Judge.
It’s only that if he turns down the Giants, it’s not personal. It will only hurt because expectations were built up beyond reason.
But if the Giants lose the best player they’ve recruited in the Zaidi era after just one year, that carries weight. That’s the kind of thing that starts rumors around Major League Baseball about cash flow and player management. That’s the kind of thing the Giants can’t afford this crucial offseason.
So while Judge coming to the Bay would be incredible, to me, Rodón is the more important free agent target this offseason for the Giants and should be the team’s top priority amongst many highpriority to-dos.
Get it done with Rodón, Farhan. Then we can all go back to talking about Judge.