South­ern threat

The Washington Times Weekly - - National Security -

U.S. Joint Forces Com­mand made head­lines with a re­cent re­port on fu­ture threats that broached the pos­si­bil­ity of a col­lapse of the state of Mex­ico.

How­ever, spe­cial cor­re­spon­dent Rowan Scar­bor­ough re­ports that a se­cret De­fense In­tel­li­gence Agency re­por t in 2000 made sim­i­lar pre­dic­tions.

Said the Joint Forces re­port, “The grow­ing as­sault by the drug car­tels and thugs on the Mex­i­can gov­ern­ment over the past sev­eral years re­minds one that an un­sta­ble Mex­ico could rep­re­sent a home­land se­cu­rity prob­lem of im­mense pro­por­tions to the United States. In terms of worst-case sce­nar­ios for the joint force and in­deed the world, two large and im­por­tant states bear con­sid­er­a­tion for rapid and sud­den col­lapse: Pak­istan and Mex­ico. Any de­scent by Mex­ico into chaos would de­mand an Amer­i­can re­sponse based on the se­ri­ous im­pli­ca­tions for home­land se­cu­rity alone.”

Said the se­cret DIA re­port in 2000, “Nar­cotics traf­fick­ing and its abil­ity to in­tim­i­date and cor­rupt of­fi­cials at all lev­els will pose a for­mi­da­ble chal­lenge to Mex­ico’s gov­ern­ment and so­ci­ety in gen­eral. Mex­i­can crim­i­nal groups will be­come even more in­volved in both the move­ment and dis­tri­bu­tion of co­caine serv­ing the U.S. mar­ket. Mex­ico also will re­main a heroin sup­plier and the main source for most of the for­eign­derived metham­phetamine and mar­i­juana in the United States through 2020.”

Bill Gertz cov­ers na­tional se­cur ity af­fairs. He can be reached at 202/636-3274, or at in­sid­e­ther [email protected]­ing­ton­

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