What is at stake?

The Week (US) - - News 11 -

The re­sults of the 2016 Brexit referendum took everyone by sur­prise, and no­body had re­ally run the num­bers about what leav­ing the EU would mean. The Leave cam­paign said aban­don­ing the EU would bring a fi­nan­cial wind­fall, but it’s now clear there will be large costs. The U.K. con­trib­utes about $10 bil­lion more to the EU bud­get than it gets from the EU in pub­lic ser­vice fund­ing, re­bates, and pay­ments to farm­ers, and that money will now stay home. But those sav­ings will be swal­lowed up by costs re­lated to Bri­tain’s loss of ac­cess to the EU sin­gle mar­ket. Fi­nan­cial firms in Lon­don, and other ser­vice in­dus­tries, which ac­count for nearly 80 per­cent of Bri­tish GDP, are ex­pected to lose $47 bil­lion a year once Brexit goes through. All told, 44 per­cent of Bri­tish ex­ports go to the EU, while just 8 per­cent of EU ex­ports go to the U.K. With the U.K. des­per­ate to pre­serve some kind of vi­able ac­cess to EU mar­kets, the EU is in a much stronger bar­gain­ing po­si­tion and has so far re­fused to yield at all on its core de­mands.

A road sign in Ire­land, near the bor­der with North­ern Ire­land

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