What the columnists said

If Trump imposes tariffs on Mexican goods, he will have “undermined his ability to maintain a hard line on China,” said Josh Barro in NYMag.com. While the economic effects of the China tariffs have thus far been limited, opening a second front in a global trade war makes it far more difficult to avoid real pain. If the economy weakens, Trump loses leverage over China. Trump has also “sabotaged” passage of a renegotiated NAFTA just as it appeared ready for ratification, said Haley Byrd in CNN.com. Facing punitive tariffs, Mexican legislators “will be hard-pressed” to ratify the new trade deal, known as the United States–MexicoCanada Agreement, or USMCA.

The president’s actions may cause some disruption, said Brandon Judd in FoxNews.com, but they are a bold and necessary step to address “the national emergency taking place on our border.” As president of the union representing 16,000 border agents, I can tell you firsthand how dire the situation has become. Our system is overwhelmed. Mexico must enforce its own immigration laws or the wave of migrants will continue unabated.

If Trump follows through, expect Mexico to retaliate in kind “with stark consequences for 2020,” said Shannon O’Neil in Bloomberg .com. “Many of the biggest exporters to Mexico—Arizona, Michigan, Illinois—are already swing states.” Retaliatory Mexican tariffs could throw Texas into recession, and put its 38 electoral college votes into play. “Trump seems to be betting again that hyping the border and demonizing trade and Mexico will rally his political base.” But he may end up alienating so many voters that he’ll win the battle and lose the war.