A ‘blue shift’ is likely in November

The “blue shift” may decide the presidential election, said David Graham. In recent races, Democrats have benefited from a large wave of provisional ballots counted after the polls closed—sometimes, changing which candidate won. In the 2018 midterm elections, blue-shift votes tallied after Election Day gave Democrat Kyrsten Sinema a U.S. Senate race in Arizona and helped Democrats win 41 House seats nationally. Amid the pandemic, tens of millions of additional votes will be cast by mail in November, but President Trump has convinced many Republicans that mail-in ballots are tainted. This could lead to a massive blue shift in mail-in votes—and a “catastrophic” challenge to the results. Let’s say that when polls close, President Trump holds a narrow lead in one or more swing states that would give him an Electoral College majority. He’ll declare victory. But as mail-in votes are tallied over days and even weeks, Biden emerges as the clear winner in those swing states. Trump “cries fraud and insists that he’s the target of a criminal Democratic coup.” The country would be plunged into chaos. Unless one candidate wins by a landslide, “Election Day will be more like Election Week or Election Month this year.”