A new strategy as vaccination rates drop
What happened
President Biden shifted the nation’s vaccination strategy to target holdouts this week, as the pace of inoculations dropped amid flagging demand—leading experts to question whether the U.S. will ever reach herd immunity. Biden set a new goal of getting at least one dose into 70 percent of the adult population by July 4. Currently, over 147 million Americans, or 56 percent of U.S. adults, have gotten at least one shot, and more than 106 million—41 percent—are fully vaccinated. To meet the 70 percent goal, the government will shift its focus from mass vaccination sites to smaller settings such as pharmacies, doctor’s offices, and mobile clinics, and spend hundreds of millions on outreach and education campaigns. “We’re going to make it easier than ever to get vaccinated,” said Biden. The government will also target 12- to 15-year-olds, whom the FDA is expected to authorize to receive the Pfizer vaccine next week. The tactical shift comes as vaccination numbers are dropping sharply. Fewer than a million doses were administered Monday, down from a high of 4.6 million on April 11, and some states had doses piling up. Infectious-disease specialists said that because the new variants are more infectious, vaccinating 80 percent of the population may be necessary for true herd immunity and for Covid cases to essentially disappear.
Nonetheless, the vaccine campaign has already produced sharp national drops in deaths, hospitalizations, and new infections. The daily average of new cases fell below 50,000 for the first time since October, while average daily deaths dropped below 700, down from a high of 3,431 in January. Los Angeles County—once a hot spot—reported two straight days with zero deaths, and New York, New Jersey, and Connecticut announced they will lift most restrictions by May 19. “The light at the end of the tunnel is actually growing brighter and brighter,” Biden said. “Get vaccinated.”
What the editorials said
It now looks like the “magical moment” when we hit herd immunity and Covid-19 vanishes “may be out of reach,” said the Los Angeles Times. With worrisome strains spreading and “so many Americans unwilling to put aside their irrational fears” of vaccination, we may have to live with a troublesome number of Covid cases “for the foreseeable future.” To lower that number, the country needs a “sustained and consistent” vaccination effort across “every level of society,” led by “heads of state down to churches and community groups.”
“Don’t freak out” over herd immunity, said the New York Post. It’s a “handy concept but also a slippery one,” and expert estimates of the percentage required are “merely guesses.” The goal is to move toward “a near-zero transmission rate,” and our progress “continues by leaps and bounds.” Vaccine resistance is declining as people see that the shots are “safe and effective”—and tens of millions of the unvaccinated “could have natural immunity” from already having had Covid.
What the columnists said
The same people who’ve defied mask orders are now refusing vaccines, said William Saletan in Slate.com, and these “miscreants and freeloaders” are keeping the rest of us “from resuming normal life.” Some of the holdouts believe the virus is no big deal, but others “have made a different calculation”: They don’t need to get vaccinated because others will. How selfish.
Herd immunity is “a dimmer,” not an on-and-off switch, said Jim Geraghty in NationalReview.com, and its impact is already visible. About 70 percent of vulnerable seniors have been vaccinated and are no longer dying in large numbers. As millions of shots go into arms every week, “the virus gets a little less room to maneuver.” So far, the vaccines are even proving to be very effective against the variants. The big picture, in other words, is very encouraging.
Every day, we’re “moving incrementally closer to victory,” said Juliette Kayyem in TheAtlantic.com. Israel offers a hopeful example. With some 60 percent of Israelis receiving at least one dose, they’re averaging fewer than two deaths and 90 new cases per day—a stunning drop from 8,000 daily cases in early January. The variants, vaccination culture wars, and spikes in India and Brazil still give us “plenty of reasons to worry.” But public health leaders should acknowledge what is now clear: In the U.S., “we are winning the war against Covid-19.”