The GOP: Is Trump unstoppable?

To moderate Republicans who watched Donald Trump “steamroll through the primary in 2016” in helpless horror, the GOP’s current situation is “beginning to look like a rerun,” said Sally Goldenberg and Natalie Allison in Politico. As Trump dominates news coverage and Republicans “rally to his defense” following his Manhattan indictment, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, and other frustrated Republicans vying for the 2024 nomination are fighting a losing battle to be heard over the din of the “The Donald Trump Show.” The indictment gave Trump momentum just as “many in the party wanted to move on,” said Mark Niquette and Nancy Cook in Bloomberg. After the indictment, his lead over DeSantis jumped to 51 percent to 26 percent in the RealClearPolitics poll aggregate. Strategists worry Trump’s surge will damage other Republicans’ efforts to fundraise, as his campaign tells the big donors that Trump is “an unstoppable force.”

For Democrats, it’s a dream come true, said Andrew C. McCarthy in National Review. Saddled with a weak candidate in President Biden, they have one shot at holding the White House in 2024: “running against Trump.” Don’t let the fervor of hard-core Trumpers obscure the fact that he’s deeply unpopular with the rest of the country: His favorability rating plummeted to 25 percent in a new ABC/Ipsos poll. Things will only worsen as the indictments mount in the coming months, and his “demagogic riffs” and fixation on his own grievances further alienate independents and GOP moderates. If Trump is the GOP nominee, Democrats will win the White House by 10 points or more, with “the tide sweeping the Senate and the House their way, too.”

“There is a way forward” for a Trump challenger who plays his cards right, said veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz in The New York Times.

A successful challenger must embrace Trump’s agenda—his America First foreign policy, his antiregulatory stance, his vow to speak for the voiceless—but draw a contrast with “decency, civility, and a commitment to personal responsibility and accountability.” Many Republicans who loved Trump’s policies are embarrassed by his boorish, bullying behavior, and “a sizable number” might embrace a candidate who can offer a stark contrast. None of the current GOP hopefuls “is coming close yet” to striking the right notes, but if one does, the race could look much different in six months.