State: Expect a small wave
Hospitalizations could peak in early summer as new variants take over
Colorado can expect a relatively small COVID-19 wave in the coming months as new variants take over, assuming the latest version of the virus isn’t significantly better at getting around the immune system.
The latest report from the state’s modeling team showed hospitalizations could peak between 550 and 650 by early summer, if the ascendant BA.2.12.1 variant is no more severe than omicron and no better at evading the immune system. That would be comparable to the peak of the spring 2021 wave, which was the second-smallest the state seen so far.
Much remains unknown about the new variant, however, and people’s decisions to use or forego precautions will influence how far the virus may spread.
The new modeling report estimated about one in every 375 residents is currently contagious, but that at least 80% of Coloradans have some immunity to current variants of the virus.
As of Tuesday afternoon, 88 people were hospitalized with confirmed COVID-19, which was a small increase from a week earlier. New admissions to the hospital with the virus edged up in the week starting April 10, but the difference was small enough that it may not be meaningful.
The Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment is only publicly reporting the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations once a week.
State epidemiologist Dr. Rachel Herlihy said Friday that cases have been in a “clear increasing trend” for about two weeks. Reported infections hit their low point in late March, with a seven-day average of 302 confirmed new infections per day. On Thursday, the average was 605 per day.
“Cases in Colorado continue to be quite low,” she said. “We have seen a doubling there in a couple of weeks.”
The positivity rate has also roughly doubled, from a seven-day average of 2.5% of COVID-19 tests coming back positive in mid-march to an average of 5.1% as of Thursday.
More people are taking home tests, which makes it difficult to compare the current numbers to what Colorado experienced in 2020 and 2021, Herlihy said. But combined with data from sampling wastewater and the small increase in hospitalizations, they paint a consistent picture of a modest increase in transmission over the last few weeks, she said.
“I do trust that these are true trends,” she said.
The previously dominant strain, known as BA.1, accounted for only about 19% of cases in Colorado as of April 10, which is the most recent date available. Prevalence of its cousin BA.2 actually dropped slightly, from about 76% to 70%, as the new BA.2.12.1 variant made in-roads. All three are in the omicron family.