Top Colorado farming region must retire land to avert water well shutdown
To meet river compact, northeastern part of state must stop irrigating 25,000 acres by 2029
For 17 years, Nate Midcap has spent his winters traveling hundreds of miles across the plains of northeastern Colorado to measure how far water levels have fallen in farmers’ wells.
In bad years, he finds the aquifer — which fuels farming in one of the state’s most important agricultural regions — has dropped more than two feet. In good years, it might be less than a foot.
But the water always drops.
“The static level is declining every year — it’s not coming back,” said Midcap, a groundwater manager. “We’re in a locked basin, with no recharge.”
For decades, farmers in the Republican River basin have pumped water from the underground Ogallala Aquifer to grow wheat, beans, corn, potatoes, and feed for cattle and hogs. But the water is running out. Flows in the Republican River system are shrinking as the aquifer depletes, making it harder for Colorado to send enough water downstream to the east to fulfill its agreements with Kansas and Nebraska.
To meet its obligations, Colorado is legally required to stop irrigating 25,000 acres in the southern part of the basin by the end of 2029 — more than a quarter of all irrigated acreage in that area. If the mandate is not met, state water officials say they will turn off wells for all 540,000 irrigated acres in the broader swath of the state that’s in the river basin, a move that would devastate the region’s economy and way of life.
“It would implode the economies out here,” said Deb Daniel, general manager of the Republican River Conservation District.
With wells cut off, farms wouldn’t be able to grow crucial crops that feed Colorado and the wider region. The companies that sell farming supplies, such as seed, tractors and sprinklers, would lose massive amounts of business.
Less local income would mean fewer meals at local restaurants in the plains towns and trips to the movie theater or bowling alley. Tax revenue would fall, potentially impacting schools and emergency and social services.
Without irrigation, land values would drop — giving farmers less collateral for the loans they depend on to begin each season.
“What’s frightening about it is that it’s really an existential issue for those living in that region,” said Jordan Suter, a Colorado State University professor tasked with examining the economic fallout from that scenario. “With good reason. If irrigated production goes away, the area can’t really support a large population.”
Groundwater from the aquifer makes irrigated farming possible across a large part of Colorado’s Eastern Plains that spans about 7,000 square miles across eight counties — an area the size of New Jersey. In 2022, the counties produced more than $2.6 billion worth of agricultural products, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s farm census.
The state has made some progress, but even if it meets the 25,000-acre goal, the aquifer’s water level is still declining.
Water — or the lack thereof — and how to conserve it comes up at every local meeting Alan Welt attends. Welt, 66, grows corn, sugar, beets, wheat and pinto beans south of Wray with his three sons.
“It’s a finite resource,” he said. “How much longer can you make it last and still have water available for the cattle and the people out here?”
The question isn’t unique to the Republican River region. Water supplies in the West and the High Plains are shrinking while the populations they feed, here and across the country, are growing.
“There are just hard decisions all over the American West right now about a precious natural resource — all the need for it and how to divide that fairly,” said Tracy Kosloff, Colorado’s acting state engineer overseeing the Division of Water Resources.