5 things Biden must do in big speech
Improving perceptions by voters is major goal
It’s not just another speech. Standing before a joint session of Congress − and addressing what may be his largest TV audience of the year − President Joe Biden faces the challenge of his political lifetime Thursday in resetting a reelection year that has many Democrats frantic and Republicans smug.
There are times when the annual State of the Union is an opportunity for a president to unveil ambitious policy proposals, build public support behind them and forge bipartisan coalitions to enact them.
This is not one of those times. With the election eight months away and former President Donald Trump pulling a bit ahead in most national polls, the speech stands as the prime moment for Biden to convince Americans they shouldn’t evict him from the White House.
He needs not only to pivot to the center on immigration but also to allay a progressive base that has been fractured over the plight of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip. He has to claim credit for brightening economic news while indicting Republicans for the national firestorm over abortion rights.
Most difficult of all, he must turn around an impression of himself that already has been set among most Americans.
Here’s what he needs to do:
Appear wiser, not just older
This time, the single most important thing isn’t what Biden says. It’s how he says it – and how he looks.
Biden’s age − he’s 81 − is impervious to political spin. He started his term as the oldest president in American history, and in speech and gait he has visibly aged since then. Nearly three-fourths of registered voters told a Siena-New York Times poll last week that he was too old to be effective in office.
Depicting Biden as mentally and physically infirm is a basic part of Trump’s campaign strategy, even though the likely Republican nominee is only four years younger, at 77.
In his address, Biden can try to convey that age has also brought wisdom. He can project vigor and confidence from the moment he steps into the House chamber. He can use humor and crispness to defuse Americans’ concerns about his acuity.
Pivot on immigration
As a flood of migrants has created chaos on the southern border and a crisis on city streets across the country, immigration has replaced the economy as the most damaging issue for Biden. He has been laying the groundwork to announce new and tougher policies.
That may help him attract centrist voters, but it also carries the risk of alienating others who accuse him of adopting approaches that they, and Biden, decried as inhumane during the Trump administration.
Biden already embraced a major shift on immigration this year when he backed a foreign-aid bill that would have allowed the Department of Homeland Security to close the border if too many migrants were trying to cross it and expedited the repatriation of migrants who failed to win asylum. The measure passed the Senate but was scuttled in the House after Trump complained it would be “another Gift to the Radical Left Democrats,” addressing a problem that was paying off for Republicans.
Abortion, abortion, abortion
Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, more than a dozen states have banned all or most abortions. In other states, including conservative ones like Kansas, voters have moved to protect abortion access. The issue delivered for Democrats in last year’s midterm elections, a major factor in denying Republicans the “red wave” they had predicted.
Last month, the Alabama Supreme Court recognized embryos as children, a decision that imperiled standard in vitro fertilization treatments. The furor that followed sent Trump and other Republicans scrambling for cover.
While Trump has nearly swept the GOP’s nominating contests this year, those election returns have carried some warning signs among independent voters, a group that largely supports reproductive rights. Trump has urged negotiations on the issue, floating the idea of a ban on abortion at 15 weeks of pregnancy that would allow exceptions in cases in rape, incest or to save the life of the mother.
Biden, a devout Catholic, has had his own reservations about abortion in the past. Now, politically speaking, he needs to put himself firmly on the side of abortion rights and paint Trump squarely on the other side.
Tout the soft landing
Many of the experts who predicted a recession was all but inevitable now acknowledge the economy has managed to make a “soft landing” instead, with the job market strong and inflation beginning to temper.
Americans are starting to believe them. The monthly University of Michigan survey of consumer sentiment rose 16 percentage points in December and 13 more points in January, the biggest consecutive increases since 1991.
So far, that rosier outlook hasn’t done much to boost the president, whose approval rating remains mired at a dismal 38.1%, according to recent national polls averaged by fivethirtyeight.com. A majority of Americans, 56.2%, disapprove of the job he’s doing as president.
Count on Biden to tout the impact of the huge $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill he pushed through Congress in 2021. Only now is ground being broken on many of the projects designed to provide safe drinking water, expand internet access, repair bridges and boost public transit.
Get the band back together
Biden’s Electoral College victory in 2020 was narrow, dependent on small margins in a handful of states − Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin among them. While Trump has held his losing coalition together, Biden has watched his winning coalition erode.
An overwhelming 91% of registered voters who said they voted for Trump in 2020 plan to vote for him again in November, according to aggregated national polls over the past six months by Marquette Law School. But among Biden’s 2020 voters, only 81% plan to vote for him again.
The good news for Biden is he lost ground not to Trump but rather to “someone else,” an unnamed third-party candidate who now claims 15% of Biden’s supporters. Those voters could well be open to persuasion to come back, if he can make that case.