Niners proved me wrong this season
I always expected that these San Francisco 49ers would kick up their feet this weekend and take in a full, fourgame slate of playoff football from the comforts of their couches.
I just didn’t expect them to be doing it while on their playoff bye week.
Yes, the 49ers are still playing football — they’re the No. 1 seed and favorites to win the NFC after a nail-biting, spellbinding 13-3 campaign.
They proved me wrong. I thought this 49ers team would go 7-9 this year. I explained my reasoning in a column aptly titled “Five reasons why the Niners will miss the playoffs this year”, published Sept. 5, 2019.
Nailed it!
Yes, I saw the talent and the potential, but ultimately, I didn’t think it’d all fit together the way
that it has.
And while there’s a lot of luck in the NFL — analytics suggest that as much as 52 percent of NFL game outcomes are determined by luck — and the 49ers undoubtedly had some of that come their way, this team’s campaign was anything but lucky.
So with some time to kill on all of our hands, consider this my mea culpa.
And perhaps, in my effort to make amends for where I was wrong, we can all reflect on just how right it all went for San Francisco this year. PREDICTION >> “Turnovers are everything” aka Jimmy Garoppolo does sure turn the ball over a bunch, doesn’t he?
REALITY >> I was only half-wrong Turnover margin is likely the single-strongest indicator of success in the NFL, and the 49ers went from a minus-1.6 turnover deficit per game — worst in the NFL — last year to a more-than-respectable plus-0.2 turnover margin in 2019 — 11th in the NFL.
The 49ers’ offense went from second-to-last in the NFL in giveaways per game to 20th. Not great, but a marked improvement that put San Francisco in the black this season.
The big key to that offensive turnaround? Garoppolo.
Garoppolo had an uninspiring preseason and his limited track record heading into the season didn’t provide much to counter the recent evidence, but as the season — his first full season as a starter — progressed, Garoppolo’s progress as a quarterback was unmistakable. In the 49ers’ last nine games, Garoppolo’s play was splendid. Dare I say elite?
There were nine turnovers — six interceptions and three lost fumbles — in those nine games, but not all of them were Garoppolo’s fault and the number of possible turnovers precipitously dropped.
All Garoppolo did was prove beyond a shadow of a doubt that he’s more than capable of quarterbacking a team to the Super Bowl.
PREDICTION >> “The secondary is a huge concern” REALITY >> When a fourman pass rush is getting to the quarterback, the 49ers’ secondary was elite this season
The Niners’ front four forced quarterbacks to either throw it fast or face certain peril. And on the back end, the 49ers became a dramatically more versatile and multiple defense. Yes, the team played plenty of singlehigh-safety zone defense, but they would go whole games playing man-toman coverage, and there were far more two-high-safety looks this year.
Saleh was exotic with coverages and blitzes and — particularly early in the season — toyed with opposing offensive coordinators and quarterbacks.
PREDICTION >> This team doesn’t have enough depth in enough places
REALITY >> The 49ers’ depth was perhaps its biggest strength
The 49ers’ offense line saw both starting tackles go down with multiple-game injuries that overlapped. Rookie Justin Skule and Alliance of American Football alum Dan Brunskill filled in more than admirably and the Niners’ winning machine kept rolling.
PREDICTION >> The NFC is stacked
REALITY >> It was, but the 49ers were even more stacked
PREDICTION >> The 49ers don’t have a home-field advantage
REALITY >> Levi’s at Night became a thing in 2019
We’ll see if that energy — the juice that only a great football product can provide a fanbase — carries into the playoffs, where the 49ers will have home-field advantage all the way to the Super Bowl.