Count winners and analyze options

Alexis Carrel, who was a French surgeon and biologist awarded the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine in 1912 for pioneering vascular suturing techniques, said, “All great men are gifted with intuition. They know, without reasoning or analysis, what they need to know.”

Many great bridge players know, without reasoning or analysis, what they need to do. They can “feel” where the missing cards are located. But for most of us, we should count winners and losers, and analyze the various possible lines of play.

In today’s deal, South is in three no-trump. West leads a fourth-highest heart six; East wins with the ace and returns the heart eight. What should declarer do now?

With a long minor, no singleton, no void and no thoughts about a slam, raise one no-trump to three no-trump.

South starts with seven top tricks: three spades, one heart (given the first trick), two diamonds and one club. If the diamond queen is singleton or doubleton, there are overtricks in declarer’s future. But what if East has queen-third or -fourth? That doesn’t look troubling, but South must be careful.

Suppose he finesses the heart jack at trick two. Here, West might shift to a low club at trick three, setting up five tricks for the defenders: two hearts, one diamond and two clubs.

What happens if South wins the second trick and runs the diamond jack?

Then the contract is safe. If East wins with the diamond queen and can return another heart, declarer will lose only three hearts and one diamond. Here, East will take the diamond and shift to a low club, but South wins with his ace and claims an overtrick.