What to know about new Giants prospect rankings
SCOTTSDALE, ARIZ. >> Spring training is the time of year when every team has visions of hoisting a trophy after a magical October run, but those dreams are more realistic for some franchises than others.
The San Francisco Giants are among the clubs building more toward the future than the present, so when top prospect lists are revealed, fans are more inclined to pay attention.
The list that guides the prospect rankings we use in Bay Area News Group stories was released Thursday as MLB.com unveiled its latest Top 30 Giants prospects. The analysts at MLB. com do strong, thorough work, but we like to add our own commentary based on conversations with Giants executives and observations from minor league and spring training games.
Here’s 10 thoughts on the new Top 30.
1. It wouldn’t have shocked me to see 18-yearold shortstop Marco Luciano climb to the top of the list, but Joey Bart is more than deserving of the No. 1 spot. Bart has all the tools to be an outstanding twoway player and it’s not unrealistic to think he’ll be the consistent middle-of-the-order presence in the 2020s that Buster Posey was in the 2010s. It’s entirely possible Luciano becomes the Giants’ version of Ronald Acuña, Jr., but right now, Bart seems like a safer bet to have an above-average major league career.
2. Four of the Giants’ top eight prospects — Luciano, Alexander Canario (No. 6), Luis Toribio (No. 7) and Luis Matos (No. 8) — are international signees who were added in the final years of Bobby Evans’ tenure as general manager. For all the credit Farhan Zaidi will receive (and it’s deserved) for transforming the Giants’ farm system during his tenure, don’t forget about the strides the Giants made internationally at the end of Evans’ time in the organization.
3. The new Top-30 rankings confirmed why the 2019 trade deadline was transformational for the Giants’ farm system and why the 2020 trade deadline could be even better. Zaidi acquired four of the team’s Top 20 prospects — Mauricio Dubón (No. 11), Jaylin Davis (No. 13), Tristan Beck (No. 17) and Kai-Wei Teng (No. 20) — in three separate deals. He was able to restock without trading Madison Bumgarner or Will Smith, so fans should be encouraged by what the Giants might be able to do if the mission in 2020 is to “sell.”
4. The Giants expect to graduate a few prospects including Dubón, Davis and perhaps even Bart from the list this season, but the organization has a massive opportunity to create critical depth in the farm system in the June amateur draft. With four picks among the top 70 selections, the Giants should be adding four Top 15-to-20 prospects to the system and should have a great chance to find the quality arms the organization desperately needs.
5. If there’s one glaring weakness in the Giants’ farm system, it’s that the organization lacks starters with top-of-the-rotation upside. Left-hander Seth Corry might be the only frontline starter in the system right now, although there’s plenty of internal hope that Sean Hjelle (No. 9) and Logan Webb (No. 12) develop into dependable assets for the rotation. The Giants have some lower-profile pitchers they think can crack the big leagues as starters, but the organization has had a tough time bringing pitchers along over the last decade.
6. It’s important to remember that prospects who aren’t included on the Top30 list still have a chance to contribute at the major league level. It’s also important to note that many prospects who are on the list are not guaranteed to find big league success. Take No. 20 prospect Melvin Adón and unranked reliever Tyler Rogers as examples. Adón has an 80-grade fastball and a 60-grade slider whereas Rogers has never been highly-regarded as a prospect. Yet this spring, Adón was among the first players cut while Rogers could be the Opening Day closer.
7. The back end of the Top-30 list is intriguing because it’s loaded with different types of talent. Sean Roby (No. 24) is a 12th round draft pick who can whack the ball but has largely been overlooked by other publications that rank prospects, while Grant McCray (No. 25) is a third round draft pick with elite speed who must improve his ability to make contact before he can rise through the ranks. Sandro Fabian (No. 27) was the top signee from the Giants’ 2014 international class and while he makes plenty of contact, there’s concerns about plate discipline and his abilities in the field.
8. Time will tell whether the $13 million-plus investment in Will Wilson (No. 10) was worth it, but it was relatively surprising to see Wilson ranked ahead of Dubón (No. 11). There’s something to be said for Wilson, the Angels’ 2019 first round draft pick, being four years younger than Dubón, but his ranking indicates that a relatively average debut in pro ball last summer isn’t something to be concerned about. The Giants think Wilson will stick at shortstop while many analysts view him as a long-term option at second base, but he’s a slick fielder who demonstrated in college that can hit for power and those are qualities the organization covets for an up-the-middle talent.
9. It’s easy for fans to see a list such as MLB. com’s Top 30 and get excited about the immediate future of the team, but many of the players — particularly international signees — are still in the earliest stages of their development. It could be 2023 or 2024 before Canario, Toribio or Matos reaches the big leagues and by that point, perceptions of their abilities and true talent levels will have assuredly changed. The potential is clear and there’s an obvious path for the Giants to build out a roster filled with homegrown stars, but plenty will have to go right in terms of player development to make that happen.
10. Sleeper watch: There are always talented players (e.g. Tyler Rogers) who fall through the cracks when it comes to prospect rankings, so I’ve created a small list of minor leaguers I’ll be keeping tabs on throughout the season. It’s too soon to give up on the development of Jacob Gonzalez, the second round pick from 2017, who plays a strong first base and is still only 21. Outfielders Franklin Labour and Diego Rincones have some intriguing power and like Gonzalez, could make their way to High-A San Jose this year. If third base prospect David Villar can cut down on his strikeouts, he also strikes the ball hard enough to make the climb. On the pitching side, Giants executives were thrilled with the work Matt Frisbee put in last year to lead the San Jose staff in innings and strikeouts. Left-handed starter Caleb Baragar had a really nice season at Double-A Richmond and could surprise in the Triple-A rotation this year. In the bullpen, Patrick Ruotolo dealt with an injury last season but has a deceptive delivery that makes him hard to pick up. Raffi Vizcaíno’s development is completely dependent on finding some consistency, but he can touch 100 miles per hour. Tyler Cyr has hit 99 and uses Tim Lincecum’s split-change grip. Lastly, Jesús Tona struggled in 14 games at San Jose last year, but he had a 0.98 WHIP at Augusta where he also struck out 60 batters in 42 innings.