Bay Area has recovered less than a third of lost jobs

Full rebound still years away

The Bay Area economy, which only a year ago was perhaps the hottest in the United States, has now produced a feeble job market that could be two years away from healing its COVID-inflicted ailments.

During a brutal two months in March and April of 2020, the Bay Area suffered a jobs catastrophe — yet has recovered fewer than one-third of the jobs that employers jettisoned due to government-ordered business shutdowns to battle the coronavirus.

All of the Bay Area’s three major urban centers, Santa Clara County, the East Bay, and the San Francisco-San Mateo region, have failed to recover even 40% of the jobs they lost last March and April, this news organization’s analysis of the latest figures from the state Employment Development Department shows.

California fares no better. The Golden State has recovered only about onethird of the positions that were chopped statewide during March and April of last year.

The statewide and regional weakness is in sharp contrast to the picture nationwide. The United States has regained about 56% of the jobs it lost during the two bad months.

The Bay Area’s employment rebound has been so sluggish that at the current pace of monthly job gains from May 2020 through January 2021 it could take two years, or 22 months — from now — for the ninecounty region to get back to the record-high employment levels of February 2020.

Among the largest metro areas in California, those that had at least 1 million payroll jobs prior to the massive employment cuts due to the start of the lockdowns, the San FranciscoSan Mateo metro area is mired in the deepest employment morass — by far.

Here’s now the major urban centers in the state stack up in terms of the percentage of the jobs they have recovered from May 2020 through January 2021 versus the jobs they lost in March and April 2020:

— San Francisco-San Mateo has recovered only 13.3% of the 187,500 jobs it lost during March and April.

— Santa Clara County has regained 30.7% of the 153,600 jobs it shed during the two bad months.

— The East Bay has recovered 39.7% of the 196,200 jobs that it lost.

— Los Angeles County has regained a mere 25.9% of its huge loss of 772,500 jobs.

— Orange County has recouped only 27.4% of the 276,800 jobs it lost.

— San Diego County, 37.5% recovery of the region’s job losses of 254,200.

— Sacramento County has regained 52.3% of the 137,200 jobs shed in March and April 2020.

— San Bernardino-Riverside has recouped 52.5% of the 223,300 jobs it lost.

— The Bay Area has recovered only 29.4% of the 638,600 jobs it lost in March and April. The nine-county region as a result must overcome a whopping deficit of 451,100 jobs to reclaim the recordsetting employment totals of February 2020.

California has regained only 34% of the 2.71 million jobs that it lost in

March and April 2020. That means the state has to make up a shortfall of an eye-popping 1.79 million jobs before it can get back to where it was before the shutdowns began.

The shortfall, when measured against the permonth pace of recovery, indicates that California is about 18 months away from regaining all of its lost jobs.

The South Bay is about 20 months away, or nearly two years, from getting back to the employment level it boasted in February 2020.

The East Bay will require 14 months its recover the vanished jobs.

The weakest of the weak among the big metro areas in California? The region consisting of San Francisco County and San Mateo County.

San Francisco-San Mateo has fared so poorly in terms of regaining its lost jobs that, at the current pace of employment additions, it could take five years, or 59 months, for that region to get back to where it was in February 2020.

The collapse of the hotel and restaurant sector in the Bay Area, which during the boom years was a travel and dining magnet, is a huge factor behind the Bay Area’s struggles to recoup its lost employment.

Over the 12 months that ended in January, the Bay Area lost 443,300 jobs. During the same one-year stretch, the hotel and restaurant sector in the Bay Area shed 179,000 jobs, according to seasonally adjusted figures compiled by Beacon Economics and UC Riverside.

As a result, the hotel and restaurant industry spawned 40% of all the Bay Area job losses over that same year-long period.