Three-point record is ‘gettable’
Guard poised to surpass Klay’s 14 made 3-pointers record before end of season
The question isn’t if Steph Curry can surpass Klay Thompson’s NBA record of 14 made 3-pointers in a game.
No, the question is by how many 3-pointers can Curry exceed the record?
Wednesday night, Curry made 11 shots from distance in three quarters in the Warriors’ blowout win over the Thunder. It was a spectacular performance amid an MVP-worthy run.
But Curry says he can go higher.
“I think it’s gettable, but we’ll see,” Curry said of the 3-pointer record after the win over Oklahoma City.
Of course, anything is possible for the greatest 3-point shooter to ever live. But what would need to happen for him to set the record? And just how many 3-pointers can Curry make in a game?
I dove into the data to find out.
Let’s start with this: I like Curry’s chances of breaking Thompson’s record this season.
Why? Because in the six games where he attempted the most 3-point attempts this season, the Warriors were playing smallball. Of course, Golden State has no choice but to play that run-and-gun style with rookie center James Wiseman likely out for the remainder of the season with a torn meniscus.
Yes, when the Warriors have been without Wiseman, Curry has let it fly. Nearly 60 percent of Curry’s shots are 3-pointers when Wiseman is not on the floor with him this season, asoliduptickoverwhenthe
young big is playing.
Curry also shoots better when the Warriors are playing small. Without Wiseman on the floor, his effective field goal percentage is 63 this season.
In 553 minutes with Wiseman this season, Curry is good for scoring 32 points per 100 possessions.
That’s a pretty awesome number.
But in more than 1,000 minutes not playing with Wiseman this season, Curry scores 46 points per 100 possessions, which is stupefying.
(It should also be noted that Curry has similar splits with Kelly Oubre — he scores 50 points per 100 possessions without the wing. There is not an uptick in 3-point attempts in those minutes, though.)
So the style of play should allow Curry to set the mark.
Now, what kind of performance will he need to hit 15 from deep?
If you’re going to try to make a bunch of 3-pointers, attempting a lot of 3-pointers is a good start.
But whereas Thompson shot 24 3s in his record-setting performance, Curry’s career-high for 3-point attempts in a game is 20. He’s done it twice: once against Miami this season and, before that, against Sacramento in 2019.
Wednesday was Curry’s best shooting performance from distance this season, as he made 11-of16 shots, 68 percent.
Should Curry be in that kind of a zone but attempt six more 3-pointers — 22 in total — he’d make 15 3s in a game and break Thompson’s record.
But if 20 attempts is his limit, the math is simple: Curry would need to make 75 of his 3-pointers to re-take the record.
Curry has only made
more than 75 percent of his 3-pointers in an ultrahigh-volume performance (16 or more attempts) twice before in his career. Both times, he set the
NBA record for 3-pointers made. (Feb. 2016 in Oklahoma City, 12, and Nov. 2016 at New Orleans, 13).
There might be a saturation point — a diminishment of accuracy when volume increases — so I don’t think 20 made 3-pointers is in the cards for Curry in his career, but as the game becomes more and more 3-pointcentric, I can imagine a best-case-scenario, gameof-his-life circumstance where Curry puts up 25 shots from distance and makes more than 70 percent. How about a cool 54 points from beyond the arc — 18 made 3-pointers?
Of course, to this point, we’ve ignored the elements of sportsmanship and rest. Honestly, those two factors might be the biggest limitations in Curry setting
the 3-pointer record in his career.
If Curry is having a game for the ages, it’s likely that the Warriors are winning big. Is it in good taste for Curry to keep chucking to set a record? Probably not.
And if the Warriors are winning big, is it ideal for the Warriors to keep playing Curry? Nope. Especially when you have a superstar who rolls his ankle as much as him.
Thompson set his record in three quarters. Curry might have to do the same.
The Warriors have 17 games remaining in the regular season. It’s not much of a sample size, but it’s enough. And on at least one of those nights, my bet is that the stars align for the Baby-Faced Assassin to take back his record.
And the cool part is, if the Warriors are at home, there will be a crowd there to see it happen.