The hook, a Bear and a SF prayer
They won’t advance without this recipe to defeat Rodgers
Aaron Rodgers is going to win NFL MVP this season, and it should be a unanimous vote.
Rodgers is a master of the craft — a true genius at the toughest position in sports — operating at the top of his game.
And he enters Saturday’s Divisional Round playoff game with the 49ers in Green Bay on a hot streak unlike any other I’ve seen in the NFL in recent years.
Rodgers has thrown 20 touchdowns and zero interceptions over his last seven games, against some good defenses, too. His ball placement is near-impeccable. His domination of defenses is jaw-dropping. He is so in control of the Packers’ offense that his incredible throws outnumber his incompletions by a roughly two-to-one ratio since mid-November.
As I watched every single snap he has taken this season over the last few days, I had one question in mind: how do you stop this guy?
Truth be told, there’s no good answer.
A few seasons ago, it was obvious how you stop Rodgers: you pressure him. At that juncture in his career, Rodgers was holding onto the ball too long — he wanted to push the ball down the field instead of taking what the defense gave him, and that led to bad decisions and a ton of sacks.
The 49ers had no problem executing that game plan twice in the 2019 season, including in the NFC Championship Game.
I thought that same formula would work again in Week 3, when these two teams met for a primetime game at Levi’s Stadium.
I was wrong. Oh so wrong. Rodgers had learned from his 2019 mistakes and threw the ball with lightning quickness. Rodgers averaged 2.04 seconds per throw in that game, per Pro Football Focus, and was hit only twice in the contest. In all, the Packers averaged a more-thanrespectable six yards per play and won without playing particularly well, by their standards, at least.
So heading into this playoff game, the Niners need to mix things up, at least a bit, lest Rodgers do the same thing again on Saturday and end the Niners’ season.
Here’s the three-step formula for the Niners that could give them a chance of slowing down the NFL’s best quarterback right now:
THE HOOK >> Rodgers absolutely dominates against every coverage he faces, so the Niners would be foolish to abandon their typical defensive coverage, Cover 3, which is a zoned defense with one high safety.
That was not what they played in Week 3, though — that game featured a bunch of manto-man defense on the outside and more two-high safety looks than average.
So “mixing it up” for San Francisco means sticking with what they’ve been doing.
Since Week 10, San Francisco has re-established itself as a Cover 3 team. That, plus more exotic pass-rush schemes, have
the Niners playing exceptionally well on that side of the field. Since mid-November, the Niners have allowed 284 yards per game on defense, with their best play coming in the final three weeks of the season.
Cover 3 will give the Niners eight men in the box against the Packers, limiting their run game. That many players close to the line of scrimmage also give Rodgers more to think about, too. By moving around linebackers and safeties pre-snap, the Niners can create some sleight of hand, a bit of window dressing, and that might have Rodgers guessing on coverage once the ball is snapped.
We’ve seen the Packers’ worst passing games (and that’s relative) come against teams that play a three-man defensive front, leaving linebackers on both edges as wild cards — players who could join the pass rush or drop back into coverage. It made Rodgers a bit uncomfortable in the pocket.
But the Niners are a four-man front throughand-through and defensive coordinator DeMeco Ryans rightly abandoned the concept of lineman dropping in coverage this season. I don’t expect nor would advocate a reprise of such tactics ahead of the biggest game of the campaign.
No, the Niners need to stay with their bedrock defense and get funky. You’ll never have an advantage vs. Rodgers, so don’t get out of your comfort zone.
That said, linebackers crowding the line at the A-gap before covering the “middle hook”, or nickel back K’Waun Williams simulating blitz could buy a bit of time for the pass rush to get home.
THE BEAR >> The Niners don’t stand a chance without Nick Bosa at defensive end Saturday.
No offense to the Niners’ other defensive linemen, who were immense against the Cowboys after Bosa left that game with a concussion, but the Packers’ offensive line is a different beast, Rodgers is eons better as a quarterback than Dak Prescott, and Charles Omenihu, as well as he played Sunday, just isn’t going to get the job done against Green Bay if he has to play every down.
Whether or not Bosa comes back for the game will likely go right up to kickoff. There’s optimism in the Niners’ facility that the Smaller Bear — his brother, Chargers star Joey Bosa, is the Big Bear — will play Saturday, but optimism isn’t part of the concussion protocols.
The Niners only pressured Rodgers five times in Week 3, per PFF. That number needs to be at least doubled if the Niners are going to stand a chance.
A PRAYER >> Rodgers seems to be into alternative medicine these days, and the Niners should be hoping that his biorhythms or chakra are off for Saturday’s game.
(For what it’s worth, I looked it up and Rodgers’ biorhythms on Saturday are supposed to be down on both the physical and emotional realm, but way up on the intellectual one. Use this as you see fit, Kyle Shanahan.)
(Also, before you ask, Rodgers is in the 90-day no-rules, no-testing grace period players who have recovered from Covid are granted. The pandemic won’t keep him off the field Saturday.)
The fact of the matter is that the NFL is a quarterback and head coach league. Say what you will about Packers coach Matt LaFleur, but he seems pretty good at his job. He’s certainly an outstanding coordinator, though the Packers’ special teams and game management can improve.
Remind you of anyone? Let’s call head coach a wash.
The Niners might be the better team outside of the quarterback position, but it’s pretty close. I like San Francisco’s defense better — particularly against the run — but the Packers have just as good an offense as the Niners, and the Niners have weapons galore.
It really comes down to quarterback, as it so often does in this league.
And, again, Rodgers is operating on a level that no one else can even touch right now.
If he has a bad game — forced or unforced — the 49ers have a shot, so long as their quarterback, Jimmy Garoppolo, doesn’t turn the ball over and San Francisco can control the tempo of the game with their rushing attack.
San Francisco cannot win in a shootout with Rodgers. That’d be an ultimate marksman against someone with a machete.
Even if the Niners do the latter, Rodgers is so prolific that he might simply tilt the game in his team’s favor anyway.
Now, the Niners can, absolutely, win this game. How they do it is a bit murky and will require a bit of luck — a dozen things have to go San Francisco’s way to leave Green Bay with a victory.
Seemingly the only thing that needs to be right for Green Bay is
No. 12.