Is SF bluffing its hand in Vegas?
While Las Vegas is extravagantly hosting the NFL draft for the first time, the 49ers are downplaying what might happen at their bachelor party, if you will.
“It's going to be a little boring on Day 1,” general manager John Lynch said.
Yeah, sure, as if they'll instead be wine tasting in Napa Valley (wink, wink).
The 49ers could become the Vegas Strip's headliners: “Deebo gets traded! Garoppolo goes, too!!” Lynch could make players vanish like a David Copperfield act.
Last year's move up to the No. 3 overall pick for quarterback Trey Lance also cost them first-round picks tonight and in 2023, plus a third-rounder Friday.
So, indeed, it could be a boring first round from Vegas for the Niners. It also could erupt if the 49ers make a trade or two.
Here is what to watch, as if you were a surveillance camera hovering over a blackjack table:
1. THE DEEBO DRAMA
All-Pro wide receiver Deebo Samuel went public with his trade request last week, when everyone figured the 49ers were working on a contract extension that might not come until later this summer.
Lynch, in Monday's press conference, said he can't envision trading someone “who means so much to this franchise. I've got nothing but love for the guy.”
Well, same went for DeForest Buckner two years ago before they exchanged that All-Pro defensive tackle for the Indianapolis Colts' first-round pick.
Samuel should command an attractive haul, that at minimum includes a first-round pick, which the 49ers can parlay into an immediate starter for their quest to reach at least a third NFC Championship Game in four seasons.
Jimmy Garoppolo's trade market vanished last month, as NFL teams filled their quarterback spots and as he recovered from March 8 shoulder surgery. He still hasn't started throwing and may not until training camp in three months, so nothing's changed there.
However, the draft could inspire a team – it only takes one – to restart trade talks and grab Garoppolo. The quarterbacks in this draft aren't highly touted. This evening's distractions could be optimal cover for the 49ers to lower their asking price for their 31-14 starter.
3. MOVING ON UP
The last time the 49ers did not make a first-round draft pick was in 1996. Defensive end Israel Ifeayni was their top pick in the second round, followed by Hall of Fame wide receiver Terrell Owens in the third round.
Sure, the 49ers could be patient, hope to find a superstar on Friday or Saturday, like this regime did with George Kittle (2017, fifth round) and Fred Warner (2018, third round).
But Lynch and coach Kyle Shanahan have swung five trades related to the first round in as many years together.
“We're used to having some action and we'll see, that might happen again,” Lynch said. “But, otherwise, we'll kind of sit through and continue to work so that when we get to our pick, whenever that is,
we're ready to make it the best move for the 49ers.”
Other teams without a first-round pick: Rams, Raiders, Broncos, Dolphins, Bears, Colts and Browns; all but the latter two are on the 49ers' 2022 schedule.
4. RECEIVER ROULETTE
Samuel isn't the only one to notice how wide receivers' value shot up the past month via contract extensions. That could carry over to the first round with a deep class of the NFL's next wave of pass catchers.
If that pay grade is skyrocketing, teams may want to use a first round spot to lock in five years worth of rookie-contract control.
This deck is stacked with Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, Jameson Williams, Drake London, Treylon Burks, Christian Watson (Lance's college teammate), Skyy Moore, George Pickens, and Johan Dotson.
They're only in play for the 49ers if Samuel is jettisoned. But the 49ers eventually must again draft that position, regardless of Samuel's status, because they also need a new slot man (not a Vegas pun) and a deep threat for their presumed transition to the strong-armed Lance.
5. FINDING A WINNING EDGE
This draft could open with a spree of defensive ends: Kayvon Thibodeaux, Aidan Hutchinson, Travon Walker, and Jermaine Johnson II generated predraft buzz as top-10 options.
Instead of having the top of the draft clogged with quarterbacks and offensive tackles, this could be the one for pass rushers to make their move.
The 49ers found their ideal one in 2019 with Nick Bosa at No. 2 overall, and they could use this draft to add a speed rusher opposite him, otherwise their
current options are Samson Ebukam, Kerry Hyder Jr., Jordan Willis, Charles Omenihu and Kemoko Turay.
6. RUNNING BACKS FALL
Could this be the first draft since 2014 to not feature a running back in the first round? It wouldn't be shocking after the ensuing years' totals were: 2, 1, 2, 3, 1, 1, 2.
That could benefit the run-oriented 49ers. True, they found a sixth-round star last year in Elijah Mitchell, and they invested a third-rounder in Trey Sermon. But depth is coveted every year in Shanahan's demanding system.
Alabama's Brian Robinson Jr. reportedly filled one of the 49ers' 30 spots for pre-draft visits. Breece Hall and Kenneth Walker II could sneak into the first-round. Others could fall to the 49ers, whose No. 61 overall slot is their first of nine current picks.