‘Mountain to climb’ at UN climate talks

GLASGOW, Scotland (AP) — The United Nations climate summit in Glasgow has made "some serious toddler steps" toward cutting emissions but far from the giant leaps needed to limit global warming to internationally accepted goals, two new analyses and top officials said Tuesday.

And time is running out on the two weeks of negotiations.

The president of the climate talks, Alok Sharma, told high-level government ministers at the U.N. conference to reach out to their capitals and bosses soon to see if they can get more ambitious pledges because "we have only a few days left."

This month's summit has seen such limited progress that a United Nations Environment Programme analysis of new pledges found they weren't enough to improve future warming scenarios. All they did was trim the "emissions gap" — how much carbon pollution can be spewed without hitting dangerous warming levels— a few tenths of a percentage point, according to the review released Tuesday.

The analysis found that by 2030, the world will be emitting 51.5 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide each year, 1.5 billion tons less than before the latest pledges. To achieve the limit first set in the 2015 Paris climate accord, which came out of a similar summit, the world can only emit 12.5 billion metric tons of greenhouse gases in 2030.

A separate analysis by independent scientists found a slight decrease in future warming, but one still insufficient to limit the warming of the planet to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. The planet has already warmed 1.1 degrees since preindustrial times.

"There's some serious toddler steps," United Nations Environment Programme Director Inger Andersen said in an interview with The Associated Press a few minutes after the U.N. analysis was finished. "But they are not the leaps we need to see, by any stretch of the imagination."

In Glasgow, officials touted advances, but not necessarily success.

"We are making progress," Sharma said, "but we still have a mountain to climb over the next few days, and what has been collectively committed to goes some way, but certainly not all the way, to keeping 1.5 within reach."

Andersen acknowledged that none of the three main U.N. criteria for success for the twoweek climate talks has been achieved so far. They are cutting greenhouse gas emissions by about half by 2030; securing $100 billion a year in aid from rich countries to poor nations; and having half of that money be for for developing nations to adapt to global warming's worst harms.

The second analysis by Climate Action Tracker, which for years has monitored nations' emission-cutting pledges, said based on those submitted targets the world is now on track to warm 2.4 degrees Celsius (4.3 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times by the end of this century. That's a far cry from the 2015 Paris climate deal overarching limit of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees) and its fallback limit of 2 degrees Celsius. (shouldn't we move this up above

Given what's been pledged "we are likely to be in that area 2.4 degrees, which is still catastrophic climate change and far, far away from the goals of the Paris Agreement," said climate scientist Niklas Hohne of the New Climate Institute and the Climate Action Tracker.

Hohne's group, independent of the U.N., also looked at how much warming there would be if other less firm national promises were put into effect. If all the submitted national targets and other promises that have a bit of the force of law are included, future warming drops down to 2.1 degrees.

And in the "optimistic scenario" if all the net-zero pledges for mid-century are taken into account, warming would be 1.8 degrees, Hohne said.