UK plows on with its new normal as virus cases surge in Europe
LONDON (AP) — The bars are shut in Vienna, and the Christmas market is empty in Munich, as several European nations tighten up or even lock down to combat a spike in coronavirus infections.
Meanwhile in London, couples sip mulled wine at a seasonal market near the River Thames, full-capacity audiences fill the seats at the nearby National Theatre, and friends huddle over pints in pubs throughout the city.
Not for the first time in the pandemic, Britain is out of step with many of its neighbors. But this time, it's happy to be different.
The U.K. has endured three nationwide lockdowns and recorded nearly 145,000 deaths from the coronavirus, the highest toll in Europe after Russia. Now, it is watching as hospitals struggle with surging cases in countries including the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, Austria and the Czech Republic, bringing lockdowns and restrictions. But while Prime Minister Boris Johnson has warned that a "blizzard from the east" could still ruin Britain's Christmas, many scientists say the wind is now blowing the other way.
"We are not behind Europe in this wave. They are behind us," said Paul Hunter, professor in medicine at the University of East Anglia.
The surge that is now hitting mainland Europe, driven by the highly transmissible delta strain of the virus, walloped Britain in the summer, just as the government removed all remaining legal restrictions on the economy and daily life.
Because Britain got delta in the summer, when respiratory viruses are transmitted less readily, "it wasn't so explosive as we would expect it to be in the winter, and as we're now seeing in in some European countries,"
Mark Woolhouse, professor of infectious disease modelling at the University of Edinburgh, said.
"I think the U.K. got its delta wave at a fortuitous time, whereas Austria, for example, it's the exact opposite," he said. Austria, where average daily deaths have almost doubled in the past two weeks, has gone into lockdown, and authorities there plan to mandate vaccinations beginning Feb. 1.
The World Health Organization said this week that Europe is the only region of the world where coronavirus cases are rising, and the continent could see another 700,000 deaths by the spring unless urgent measures are taken soon.
But Britain stands somewhat apart.
Many scientists predicted the country would see a spike in cases after July 19 — dubbed "Freedom Day" by the media — when almost all restrictions were lifted. It didn't happen.
Infection rates that were then among the highest in Europe, drifted up and down but never soared again as feared, though they remain stubbornly high. Britain is recording more than 40,000 new cases a day, a level last seen during the past winter's surge. But a relatively high vaccination rate — particularly among the elderly — means hospitalizations and deaths are far lower than in previous waves. Still, 130 people a day died in the past week after testing positive for Covid-19.
Federal health regulators say an experimental Covid-19 pill from Merck is effective against the virus, but they will seek input from outside experts on risks of birth defects and other potential problems during pregnancy.
The Food and Drug Administration posted its analysis of the pill ahead of a public meeting next week where academic and other experts will weigh in on its safety and effectiveness. The agency isn't required to follow the group's advice.
The FDA scientists said their review identified several potential risks, including possible toxicity and birth defects. Given those risks the FDA will ask its advisers whether the drug should never be given during pregnancy or whether it could be made available in certain cases.
Under that scenario, the FDA said the drug would carry warnings about risks during pregnancy, but doctors would still have the option to prescribe it in certain cases where its benefits could outweigh its risks for patients.
Given the safety concerns, FDA said Merck agreed the drug would not be used in children.
Additionally, the FDA flagged a concern that Merck's drug led to small changes in the coronavirus' signature spike protein, which it uses to penetrate human cells. Theoretically, FDA cautioned, those changes could lead to dangerous new variants.
Regulators also noted that Merck collected far less safety data overall on its drug than was gathered for other Covid-19 therapies.
FDA will ask its independent advisers to discuss all those issues and then vote on whether the drug's overall benefits outweigh its risks.
All Covid-19 drugs currently authorized by the FDA require an injection or IV and can only be given by health professionals. If authorized, Merck's drug would be the first that U.S. patients could take at home to ease symptoms and speed recovery. It is already authorized for emergency use in the U.K.
The meeting marks the first time regulators have publicly reviewed a new drug for Covid19, reflecting the intense interest and scrutiny of a pill that could be soon used by millions of Americans.
The drug, molnupiravir, has been shown to significantly cut the rate of hospitalizations and deaths among people with mildto-moderate coronavirus infections.
Merck's drug uses a novel approach to fight Covid-19: it inserts tiny mutations into the coronavirus' genetic code to the point that it can't reproduce itself.
But that genetic effect has raised concerns that in rare cases the drug could cause birth defects or tumors.
Pregnant women were excluded from Merck's study. And both women and men in the study were instructed to use contraception or abstain from sex.
For its part, Merck says results from two company studies in rodents show "molnupiravir does not cause mutations or damage to DNA in these animal models." The company said the rodents received higher doses for longer periods of time than humans who will take the drug.
FDA reviewers also confirmed previously reported interim results from Merck that the pill cut the rate of hospitalization and death by about half among patients with early symptoms of Covid-19 who faced increased risk due to health problems.
However, on Friday morning Merck announced updated results from the same study that showed a smaller benefit from the drug.