Prediction, scouting report as Arkansas takes on Vols
FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. — Arkansas basketball is about to get another crack at a top-10 victory, simultaneously searching for its first SEC winning streak of the season.
The Razorbacks (12-11, 3-7 SEC) host No. 8 Tennessee (17-6, 7-3) Wednesday night in the teams’ only matchup of the season. This was supposed to be a heavyweight bout when the schedule was first released, but Arkansas hasn’t matched the Volunteers’ in living up to the preseason hype.
However, Tennessee is coming off a loss in its last game, going on the road and losing 85-69 to Texas A&M Saturday. Arkansas knocked off Georgia 7875 that same day, holding on at the end after squandering a double-digit lead in the second half.
Here are three things to watch and a score prediction for the Hogs’ 11th SEC game of the season.
Who takes the
Dalton Knecht matchup?
There is no better individual scorer in the SEC this season than Knecht, who has shined brightest under the bright lights of conference play.
Knecht is averaging 20.3 points on just 14.5 shots per game. He’s shooting 40.5% from three-point and has scored at least 25 points in seven SEC games. He will be the focal point of Eric Musselman’s pregame scouting report.
But which Razorback will draw the Knecht assignment? Davonte Davis and Tramon Mark seem like the best options, but both players have had inconsistent defensive seasons. Musselman will likely trust Davis with the matchup to start, but it’s going to take a cohesive group effort, regardless of who takes the individual task.
Will Arkansas go small again?
The Razorbacks looked at their best
in Saturday’s win over Georgia with a four-guard lineup. Keyon Menifield Jr., El Ellis, Tramon Mark and Davis all have experience playing point guard, and Musselman thought that experience led to a crisper offense with better ballmovement.
Is it possible to play that four-guard look against Tennessee?
Maybe. Tennessee typically starts four guards, but two of them are a 6feet-6. The Volunteers also have big bodies off the bench who can be thrown into the fire if Rick Barnes decides to try and exploit Arkansas’ lack of size.
The chess match between Musselman and Barnes will be fascinating to watch.
How does Arkansas score?
The Hogs have been focused on paint points in their latest three-game stretch. There has been an emphasis on bypassing three-pointers to try and find better baskets inside.
Everything will be a challenge against the Volunteers. KenPom’s efficiency metrics rank Tennessee as the seventhbest defense in the country. The Volunteers only give up 68 points per game while ranking 140th in possessions per game. That’s terrific defensive value.
This could be another big game for Makhi Mitchell, and El Ellis will need another composed performance. When Ellis plays well, Arkansas usually wins. Could he spur the Hogs to their biggest win of the season?
Prediction: Tennessee 79, Arkansas 68
There was plenty of good in the Hogs’ win over Georgia, but the second-half defense was a huge worry. Arkansas has played one good defensive game in the SEC all season in its home loss to Kentucky, and anything short of that effort will leave the Hogs with no chance against Tennessee. I think Arkansas can keep things close early, but the Volunteers are too strong to leave Fayetteville without a victory.