Questions

with church doctrines on abortion and other sexuality issues. Pew researchers noted that a large majority of Democrats (70%) see the former vice president as at least “somewhat religious,” compared with the 37% of Republicans who think that.

Meanwhile, Pew found that the number of Democrats, and voters who lean that way, who “identify as Christian” fell 17% in the past decade — from 72% to 55%. At the same time, the share of “nones” rose from 20% to 34%.

The Democratic National Committee saluted that shift last summer with a resolution hailing the “religiously unaffiliated demographic” as the “largest religious group” in their party. This is crucial, the DNC said, in an era when others are using “misplaced claims of ‘religious liberty’ to justify public policy that has threatened the civil rights and liberties of many Americans,” including women and LGBTQ citizens.

But while pundits and politicos focus on the power of “nones” among Democrats, and white evangelicals inside the GOP, Wear said veteran researchers who focus on swing states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida are — once again — seeking information about another large flock of religious believers.

“Catholics are the make-or-break demographic in this next election,” he stressed. “That was obvious across the Midwest in the last (presidential) campaign. There is no reason not to be asking questions about what Catholic voters are thinking at this point in the game.”

Terry Mattingly leads GetReligion.org and lives in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. He is a senior fellow at the Overby Center at the University of Mississippi.