Public Health: COVID-19 peak TBD
There is still no clear picture of when a peak of COVID-19 cases is expected in Humboldt County and how many people are expected to get infected by the new coronavirus that causes the infectious disease.
The number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 announced increased by six Tuesday, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to 27. County Health Officer Teresa Frankovich said in a video released Tuesday afternoon that the county is still in the process of developing a model to figure out when the peak is expected to occur and how many people it’s going to impact.
“There’s no way for me to tell you today the date that this is going to occur and a projection that we set today for that may have very little meaning a short time from now,” Frankovich said.
The county knows a surge is going to occur, Frankovich said,
and is trying to ensure the peak remains low enough to not overwhelm the capacity of the local healthcare system.
Last week the number of confirmed cases went from zero on March 23 to 18, including one hospitalization, by Saturday. Nine additional confirmed cases were added since then.
Three of the 27 cases are expected to be the result of community transmission, meaning the infected individual hadn’t traveled to a high-risk country or come into contact with anyone who was infected. The county strengthened its shelter in place order, initially issued March 20, in response to the change in how the infection is spreading.
Part of the change in the shelter in place order was no longer allowing “quality of life” businesses to continue operating because “that could be anything and everything,” said Humboldt County Sheriff William Honsal in a video released Tuesday afternoon.
“Someone could justify their open business by that paragraph because literally every business enhances someone’s quality of life one way or another,” Honsal said.
The purpose of the shelter in place order is to only allow businesses and activities that are vital and essential to continue operating to limit the possibility of community transmission, Honsal said.
Honsal previously told the Times-Standard he thought the county was doing well in abiding by the shelter in place order.
At this point, people should suspect anyone coughing or sneezing near them is infected, Frankovich said.
“Transmission in people who are not having symptoms is likely not as efficient as when you’re coughing and sneezing and that type of thing, but it can occur,” Frankovich said.
There is some value to wearing masks for community members based on what their respiratory status allows, Frankovich said, even though masks are “not a perfect barrier to infection.”
“It’s not meant to allow people who are ill to go out and about,” Frankovich said. “But it can help those of us who may not yet have symptoms help prevent spread and expose other individuals near us.”
March 31, 2020 — Public Health Lab Report
Total new positive cases confirmed on March 31: 6
Daily COVID-19 case report for March 31 Total number of positive cases: 27 Total number of active cases: 26 Total number of hospitalizations: 1
Total number of people tested by Public Health Laboratory: 364
Total number of people tested by all other sources: 332 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, California Department of Public Health and commercial labs)
After receiving additional supplies, the Public Health Laboratory currently has a capacity of approximately 750 tests and can process about 40 samples a day with an approximate turnaround time of 48 hours.