With social distance, California’s virus forecast brightens

SACRAMENTO » California’s top public health official said for the first time Friday the state’s coronavirus peak spread might not be as devastating as forecast, and Gov. Gavin Newsom said plans are being made for how to reopen the state.

But with Easter Sunday and sunny weather on the horizon, Newsom implored people to stay away from others to not undo the significant progress under his stay-at-home order. Across California, local government officials closed streets, parks and other public spaces to deter people from gathering.

Dr. Mark Ghaly, secretary of the California Health and Human Services Agency, said models state officials have created to track the virus had been showing a peak by the middle of next month but have been changing as people limited their movement.

“Our peak may not end up being as high as we actually planned around and expected,” Ghaly said. “The difference between what we are seeing today in our hospitals may not be that much different than where

we are going to peak in the many weeks to come.”

California has more than 20,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases and at least 552 deaths, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, figures far lower than New York, where the infections have been most prevalent and deadly.

But the key figure for California officials is the number of hospitalizations, especially those people in intensive care, which is an indicator of how many hospital beds, staff and medical equipment the state needs.

On Thursday, ICU hospitalizations rose 1.1% after falling for the first time on Wednesday. Overall, 1,145 people were in intensive care statewide, leaving ample open space for new patients.

“When we are in single digits, low single digits, that’s a very good day,” Newsom said.

California was one of the first states to order residents to stay at home to contain the spread of the virus, forcing schools and nonessential businesses to close and residents to stay inside for more than a month.

Newsom offered hope Friday as he said his administration was preparing “detailed strategies” about the best way to get the state back up and running

“Nonetheless, that will be fundamentally determined on the basis of your individual behavior. No one can impact this more than you,” he said. “Your decision will determine what the state and federal government do in this respect.”

The virus is still dangerous and can spread rapidly. More than 1,200 people at 191 skilled nursing facilities have tested positive for COVID-19, Newsom said. Another 370 people are infected at 94 residential care facilities.