HSU faces $15-20M tuition loss over 5 years

University deficit expected to swell to $20 million

A recent enrollment management report from Humboldt State University projects yearly drops in enrollment through the 2025 spring semester due to fallout from the coronavirus pandemic, a decline which the university estimates will result in between $15 million and $20 million in lost tuition revenue.

The report predicts the university’s total enrollment will fall under 5,000 by fall 2021 and will drop to under 4,000 by spring 2025, resulting in $15.5 million in lost tuition revenue.

That estimate is based off a predicted 20% decrease in total enrollment next academic year, and decreasing drops in enrollment over the following four years. The report projects fulltime enrollment will fall below 3,500 students by spring 2025.

The report estimates that if the university suffers a 30% drop in

total enrollment next academic year enrollment total enrollment would fall to 3,049 during the 202425 academic year, and fulltime enrollment would fall to 2,714 in the same year — a tuition loss of $20.2 million.

HSU had a total enrollment of 8,790 students in fall 2015. Using the report’s best-case scenario 20% drop of enrollment next academic year, the university will have 3,908 students in 2025, a 55% decrease in enrollment.

An April 7 press release from the university and College of the Redwoods said HSU was expecting a fall 2020 freshman enrollment of around 500 students, down from 1,082 in fall 2019.

The August 2019 report “The Regional Economic Impact of HSU,” submitted to the university by ICF Incorporated, states HSU in 2018 generated more than $38 million in state and local tax revenue, or approximately $4,914 tax dollars per enrolled student.

Adjusting this figure for inflation, that’s around $3 million in lost state and local tax revenue from the estimated freshmen enrollment drop alone.

The same economic report said “In 2018, HSUrelated activity supported 6,240 annual jobs and generated more than $180 million in labor income. HSU is the largest employer in Humboldt County, and one of only three employers with over 1,000 employees. HSU supports more than 10% of total regional employment. This activity drives a substantial amount of industry activity — more than $567 million throughout the region.”

The April enrollment report is a revised version of the university’s original

enrollment predictions from March. The March enrollment report outlined a 14% drop in overall headcount at the university for the 2020-21 year and estimated yearly drops in enrollment through the 2022 spring semester.

Prior to the coronavirus pandemic HSU hoped to have around 5,300 fulltime enrollments in 2025 with a target of 7,603 fulltime enrollments by 2028.

The press release said the university was facing a $5.4 million budget deficit prior to COVID-19. Now, that number hovers around $20 million according to the university.

According to the April enrollment report HSU has not had a year in which its “actual revenues met or exceeded budgets since 2008.” The report also says even during the university’s peak years of enrollment in 2015 and 2016, HSU was still losing $2.4 million per year.

The report says HSU has averaged 32 local students per year over the last three years, a number which the university wants to see dramatically rise through recently-announced local scholarships.

“Among the nearly 800 students who have been offered the new Humboldt First Scholarship, 208 students have been admitted and accepted the Humboldt First Scholarship. It is truly critical that we work to yield as many of these students as possible, while also making direct outreach to undecided students,” the report says.

A report given to the HSU University Senate by interim Provost Lisa Bond-Maupin on April 6 in part tasked the university’s three colleges to “condense” their number of academic departments.

Bond-Maupin’s report also said the university had begun a hiring chill on most vacant staff positions.