Legislative analyst projects deficit through 2024
SACRAMENTO » California’s coronavirus-induced budget deficits will continue through at least 2024, the state’s nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office said Friday, totaling up to $126 billion depending on the severity of the recession.
The report from the Legislative Analyst’s Office says state lawmakers can expect budget deficits of about $20 billion per year going forward — but that’s only if the economy begins to recover this summer. If the downturn lingers into 2021, the deficits could average up to $30 billion per year.
“It’s not like this is a shock to the economy and a shock to the budget and then everything will go back to normal,” Legislative Analyst Gabriel Petek said. “Our analysis suggests this is going to be a multiple-year problem.”
California has been under a mandatory stay-at-home order since March 19 to prevent the
spread of the new coronavirus. The order has forced most businesses to close and prompted more than 4 million people to file for unemployment benefits. The California Department of Finance is projecting an unemployment rate of 18%, or 46% higher than the peak of the Great Recession a decade ago.
The analysis shows the state could lose up to $39 billion in revenue this year, similar to the $41.2 billion revenue loss Gov. Gavin Newsom’s administration projected on Thursday. But the two disagree on the size of the state’s deficit, with Newsom estimating a $54.3 billion hole while Petek says the deficit could reach up to $31 billion.
The difference is because Newsom’s estimate is based on the $222.2 billion spending plan he proposed in January. The Legislative Analyst’s Office built its projections based on the $208 billion spending plan lawmakers approved last year.
“Our fundamental view of the world is not that different,” Petek said.
Newsom has said he will scrap his January budget proposal because of the coronavirus. He’s scheduled to reveal his new spending plan next week.
Lawmakers will have about a month to review Newsom’s plan and make changes. Petek said they have several options to make the budget deficit smaller, but most of them involve painful cuts to public education.