LEAGUE-WORST WARRIORS FACE PIVOTAL OFFSEASON
For Golden State to maximize its championship window, they need to nail this upcoming offseason
As 22 teams move to resume their season in Orlando, Florida, the Warriors’ season is officially over.
It was a disappointing one, even for an organization that anticipated being a fringe playoff team at best. A rebuild was expected in the aftermath of Kevin Durant’s decision to sign with the Brooklyn Nets last summer, but a league-worst 15-50 record was not. Stephen Curry suffering a broken hand in the fourth game of the season, Klay Thompson’s patient rehab and Kevon Looney’s in-and-out health status did not help.
Now Bob Myers enters the most pivotal offseason of his tenure as general manager and president of basketball operations. To maximize Curry’s championship window, the Warriors know they need to vault back into contention soon. Over the next few months, they will finalize their big board for the NBA draft on Oct. 15, sift through free-agent options and reconsider much of what they’ve done organizationally over the past half-decade. Myers will confront a few key questions that will determine whether or not the Warriors will be contenders next season. WILL ANDREW WIGGINS FIT IN, OR FIT OUT? » By the time the NBA season was postponed on March 11, Wiggins played all of 27 minutes with Curry, just 24 minutes with Draymond Green, and zero alongside Thompson. That makes it hard to evaluate his on-court fit with the three foundational players, and is perhaps the biggest regret the Warriors have in the premature cancelation of their season.
In his 12 games with Golden State, Wiggins’ stats improved from his time in Minnesota, with his true shooting percentage (which takes into account 2-pointers, 3-pointers and free throws) increasing from 53.5% to 54.2%, while his usage percentage dipped from 28% to 25.4%. Put simply: He was more efficient in a lesser role.
That should be encouraging for the Warriors, who remain bullish on Wiggins’ fit. If Wiggins is content to cut off the ball, hit open 3-pointers and give consistent effort on defense, he should be fine. But if he fails to hit jumpers and develop into an above average perimeter defender, the experiment will go south.
If the NBA allows teams to participate in minicamps or scrimmages of any kind this summer, a big part of it for the Warriors will be getting those four on the court together ahead of the start of next season.
WHAT DO THEY PRIORITIZE WITH THE TOP-FIVE PICK? » It could be argued that this is the most consequential pick in franchise history. The Warriors are guaranteed a top-five pick — with a 14% chance of landing the No. 1 pick in the draft lottery on Aug. 25 — and will presumably add a talented young player who could contribute to a title contender while, at the same time, developing into the future face of the franchise.
This Warriors’ season has often been compared to the San Antonio Spurs’ 1996-97 campaign, when star forward David Robinson was injured for most of the season and they went on to draft Tim Duncan No. 1 overall.
However, this draft is more similar to when the Spurs selected Kawhi Leonard in 2011. Like these Warriors, those Spurs already had championship experience with aging stars. Leonard fit in as a 3-andD role player on a Finals team before developing into an MVP candidate as Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili aged into their twilight.
With each of Curry, Thompson and Green on the other side of 30, the Warriors should hope to select a player who, like Leonard, can contribute in a playoff series as a rookie, but also has the potential to develop into Golden State’s next All-Star player.
That’s why players like Georgia guard Anthony Edwards, Iowa State guard Tyrese Haliburton, Auburn forward Isaac Okoro and Israeli forward Deni Avdija are intriguing options at the top of the draft. All of them can thrive in a role off the ball but have either displayed the basketball feel, or have the requisite athleticism, that could help them blossom into more than role players.
DO DRAYMOND GREEN AND ERIC PASCHALL FIT TOGETHER LONG TERM? » The Warriors shot worse overall, and especially from 3-point range, when Green and rookie forward Eric Paschall shared the floor.
With Green and Paschall: 43.4 FG%, 32.3 3FG%
Warriors overall: 43.8 FG%, 33.4 3FG%
Paschall, a second-round pick last summer, was a pleasant development for the Warriors this season, but unless he and Green can coexist, his long-term impact will be limited. Paschall is an inconsistent 3-point shooter who is still working on remodeling his form, but he showed promise as a playmaker toward the end of the season, logging seven, six, eight, five and six assists in each of his last five games.
Still, head coach Steve Kerr preferred to give Paschall most of his minutes at power forward in order to maximize the spacing on the floor. The goal of Kerr’s offense is to free up his All-Star backcourt for open shots. As versatile as they are, Green and Paschall playing together puts more pressure on Curry and Thompson.
Since it’s been two years since Green has even made 30% of his 3-pointers, the onus is on the 23-yearold Paschall to improve his 3-point shooting from the 28.7% clip he posted as a rookie. Being able to play with Green and exist within Golden State’s offense turns Paschall from a fringe contributor to a core rotation player.
CAN THEY MAXIMIZE THE EXCEPTIONS? » As Myers showed in the sign-andtrade to acquire D’Angelo Russell, he prioritizes creating as much long-term roster flexibility as possible. By maintaining a max cap slot and flipping Russell for Wiggins, the Warriors are able to go over the salary cap to fit a fourth max-level player. That signand-trade triggered a hard cap, and the Warriors had to trade Andre Iguodala to the Memphis Grizzlies in order to get under that cap number for a season, creating a $17.2 million tradedplayer exception in the process. Now that the hard cap has been lifted, there’s ways to maximize that exception.
While the Warriors could use the exception to trade for any one player making $17.2 million or less, they can’t combine the exception with additional salary. One way to increase their spending power is to execute a bridge-buy, in which the Warriors acquire a player on an expiring contract (like Charlotte Hornets center Cody Zeller or Minnesota Timberwolves forward James Johnson, for instance) then combine that player with additional salary to acquire a player making more than $17.2 million. Could the Warriors use this strategy to acquire an up-and-coming talent like Indiana Pacers center Myles Turner or Orlando Magic forward Aaron Gordon?
There are three more wrinkles to consider: 1) Will the NBA extend the expiration date of the exception from July 7, considering the league won’t resume play until July 31? The bet here is yes, and that Golden State will be able to use it in October, when the draft and free agency are scheduled; 2) The Warriors could use this player in a package for Giannis Antetokounmpo, should the Bucks’ star come available; and 3) Will the significant loss of revenue due to the cancellation of their season curb the Warriors’ enthusiasm to acquire another high-end salary?
Then there’s the taxpayer mid-level exception, which should allow them to add a rotation-level center or perimeter player to the mix. Whoever it is, he needs to be helpful in a playoff series.
DO THEY HAVE ENOUGH SCORING? » This is a tough question for Myers and Kerr to answer, but could determine how the Warriors use their tools this offseason to improve the team.
In 2018-19, the Warriors had the highest-scoring offense in the NBA and averaged 115 points per game. Without Durant or Thompson, the Warriors averaged 108.5 points per game in the handful of games Curry played, and had the league’s lowest-scoring offense in 2019-20.
Having Curry and Thompson healthy will improve the team’s offense, but the Warriors still need to fill Durant’s productivity. In his final season in Golden State, Durant averaged 26 points per game on 17.7 shots per game. Wiggins does not come close to that sort of efficiency, nor does he offer the shot creation that often bailed the Warriors out of many possessions. They’ll need a committee approach.
The question is: How many players can Kerr count on to contribute consistently? Green’s days of being a double-digit scorer may be behind him, Wiggins still needs to prove he can score efficiently, and Paschall is still learning to function within the offense. Those who the Warriors acquire with the traded-player exception, mid-level exception and top draft pick will all figure into this equation.