49ers have first-round choice — his name is Trey
SANTA CLARA » The 49ers have a first-round draft pick Thursday night whether or not they trade Deebo Samuel.
His name is Trey Lance, and given the soso reviews of this year’s quarterback class, the 49ers a year ago secured the services of the player who likely would have been this year’s no-doubtabout-it No. 1 overall pick.
Think about that as you ponder the frustration and boredom that comes with having no selections during the big show from Las Vegas and the interminable wait (barring trades) for the second round and a pick at No. 61 overall.
The cost of doing business for going all-in on Lance and moving from No. 12 to No. 3 was three first-round draft picks. As it stands, the 49ers have no first-round pick in 2024, either.
Assuming Lance is as good as the 49ers think he is, and the perceived top-end quality of this year’s draft, coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch did the right thing. Line up the 2021 Lance against the 2022 quarterback crop of Malik Willis (Liberty), Kenny Pickett (Pitt), Desmond Ridder (Cincinnati) and others and it’s no contest.
And given that the draft overall is thought to be a little light in terms of game-changers but fairly solid with role players, having three selections Friday and six Saturday is not a bad place to be.
The 49ers did their heavy lifting a year ago with Lance, and they’ve got a legit prospect and a quarterback of the future instead of just a 2022 lottery ticket.
Lance was put on ice for the most part after playing against FCS competition at North Dakota State in 2019 and then having his 2020 season essentially wiped out by the COVID-19 virus. Shanahan never wavered from his plan to have Jimmy Garoppolo play another year, a decision that put the 49ers one game away from the Super Bowl.
I’d go so far as to say Lance is in a better position to succeed than any of the other first-round picks in his class.
Top pick Trevor Lawrence starts over with a new offense in Jacksonville.
No. 2 Zach Wilson plays for the Jets, who were 4-13 and on a six-year run of being awful. Justin Fields of the Bears (No. 11) has a new defensiveminded head coach (Matt Eberfluss) and a first-time offensive coordinator in Luke Getsy will bring in an entirely new system. Mac Jones of the Patriots (No. 15) saw offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels leave for the Raiders.
Only Jones played on a winning team (10-7), one that was seriously outclassed in its wild card loss to Buffalo. There’s little to suggest Jones, rumored to have piqued the 49ers’ interest a year ago, can be more than a Garoppolo-type game manager as opposed to the kind of game-changer Lance can become.
Lance has an entire year of Shanahan’s system under his belt on a playoff team. He knows the job is his, and he’s been working to refine his mechanics and arrive at the off-season program and OTAs with the plan to hit the ground running and throwing.
That’s not to say the Lance transition is not without its challenges which could slow his development.
The 49ers’ plan to surround Lance with the best possible supporting cast to succeed has had some hiccups, most notably having to do with Samuel and Garoppolo.
All Shanahan’s visions of playing Lance and Samuel at the same time and creating mismatch nightmares are in jeopardy until such a time as the 49ers’ “wide back” determines he’s fine with the compensation and the role that made him one of the NFL’s most explosive players last season.
It’s becoming more the norm for star athletes to impose their will on franchises to be moved to new surroundings, whether it be the NBA, NFL or MLB. If Samuel succeeds in doing that, Lance has lost a valuable ally in a system Shanahan was tweaking to take advantage of both players.
As for Garoppolo, the 49ers took a calculated risk they could trade him in 2021 and perhaps maneuver themselves back into the first round by combining him with some of their other picks.
With Garoppolo’s history of injury, they knew what eventually happened would be a possibility. So when Garoppolo’s shoulder surgery left him out of the 2022 game of quarterback musical chairs, and his salary of $24.2 million remained on the books, it became more difficult to add pieces to the puzzle Shanahan was putting together with Lance in mind.
Pro Bowl left guard Laken Tomlinson signed with the Jets. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is coming off surgery for a torn quadriceps and no one knows when he’ll be ready. Center Alex Mack, according to Lynch, is leaning toward retirement.
If Aaron Banks, a second-round pick a year ago, doesn’t seize the moment, Trent Williams is the lone sure thing within the unit that will be charged with keeping Lance’s jersey clean. Expect the 49ers to be on the lookout for offensive linemen in the draft in addition to assessing Banks and tackle Jaylon Moore.
“With nine picks, that’s an area we could look to bolster,” Lynch said.
Granted, it’s not as glamorous as what the 49ers did a year ago when targeting their quarterback of the future. But even with the uncertainty surrounding Samuel and Garoppolo, it was the right call then and it’s the right call now.