California recall to test Biden’s political clout
WASHINGTON — President Joe Biden has been beset by public health, military and climate crises in the past month. Not much time has been left for a potential political disaster brewing for his party in California.
With a week to spare, the White House is diving into the California gubernatorial recall election, coming to Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s aid with visits from Vice President Kamala Harris and then Biden himself to try to alleviate lingering concerns about Democratic turnout in the unusual September vote.
Harris will campaign in the state with Newsom on Wednesday after a previously planned visit was nixed due to the chaos surrounding the Afghanistan withdrawal. And Biden himself is expected to visit the state early next week, ahead of Tuesday’s election.
For Biden it’s a chance to flex his political muscle in a state where both he and Harris remain popular. The outcome also will provide a test of Biden’s clout after a difficult August and in advance of the 2022 midterms, when control of Congress and more than half of the nation’s governorships are up for grabs.
Harris and Biden are hoping to help bolster Newsom’s chance to survive an unpredictable recall effort in a state that remains key to advancing Biden’s agenda at the state and national level.
“It’s simply too big a state to lose an election in,” said Joel Benenson, a former pollster for President Barack Obama’s campaigns.
Benenson noted that beyond the political implications for the Democratic Party of losing a gubernatorial seat, the outcome of the recall could have an effect on the makeup of the Senate, if Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat opens up — leaving her replacement to be appointed by the governor.
While reliable polling has been scarce in the race, a recent survey from the Public Policy Institute of California, conducted in late August, showed more likely voters would vote no than yes on removing Newsom, 58% to 39%.
Among all likely voters, whether they would keep Newsom or not, about half say they do not have a preference on a replacement candidate or do not know their preference.
Barring the polls, the main concern for Newsom remains getting Democratic base voters engaged and aware that they need to turn out for an unusually timed election, according to Kyle Kondick, a nonpartisan political analyst at the University of Virginia.
“One way to do that is to bring in high-profile surrogates who will get a lot of news coverage, and will help spread the word about the fact that the recall is happening. And from a Democratic perspective, it’s hard to find two people better than Vice President Kamala Harris, who’s from California herself, and, of course, the president.”
Biden has already campaigned for Virginia Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe, who faces election in November. In Ohio’s 11th Congressional District Democratic primary for a special House election this November, winner Shontel Brown painted opponent Nina Turner as anti-Biden to pull out a surprise victory.
White House officials say to expect both Biden and Harris to keep a robust campaign schedule when the midterm elections heat up next year.
But the outcome of the California gubernatorial recall will offer an early test of whether Biden maintains his political potency after a tough August, during which his national poll numbers took a hit after the rocky U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and rising COVID-19 rates drew headlines.