USA TODAY International Edition
Arkansas, Michigan to host 2014 political air wars
Political campaigns will spend billions of dollars on television ads in 2014 — but not in Ohio, Colorado and other states that got flooded during last year’s presidential election.
Arkansas and Michigan will draw the heaviest barrage of political advertising in the 2014 midterm elections, fueled by lots of competitive House races and statewide elections with vulnerable incumbents, according to an analysis by a broadcasters trade association.
The fight to control Congress, in addition to a continuing battle over the Affordable Care Act, “will set the tone for very heavy messaging and a very exciting year,” says Scott Roskowski of TVB, which represents local broadcasters.
In Michigan, Republican Gov. Rick Snyder is up for re- election, and the U. S. Senate seat held by retiring Democrat Carl Levin is up for grabs. In Arkansas, Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor is in a tight re- election race against GOP Rep. Tom Cotton, and the governor’s seat is open.
Both states also have competitive House races, making them a “trifecta” for heavy political spending, says Elizabeth Wilner of Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, which tracks ad spending.
Spending on political ads on local TV is projected to be $ 2.4 billion next year, according to Kantar. That would be an increase of more than 4% from the $ 2.3 billion midterm elections in 2010, the first election after the Supreme Court’s Citizens
United decision removed limits on spending by outside groups.
Other states that will see heavy advertising include West Virginia, Georgia and Iowa, where there are open Senate seats, and Alaska and Kentucky, where incumbent Democratic Sen. Mark Begich and Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell are being targeted by national groups. Outside groups have already spent more than $ 2 million on ads in Kentucky, where McConnell also has a primary challenger. In Florida and Pennsylvania, Democrats are targeting incumbent governors Rick Scott and Tom Corbett.
This election season has yet to produce a free- spending billionaire candidate like 2012’ s Meg Whitman, who spent more than $ 140 million on a losing race for California governor, but primary challenges to six Republican senators including McConnell and Lindsey Graham of South Carolina could encourage an influx of independent expenditures, Roskowski says. He says such groups may spend $ 300 million to $ 500 million on the 2014 elections. With control of the Senate at stake, “these groups don’t intend to raise less” than they did in 2010, he says.
Republican primary contests have also emerged in Tennessee, Mississippi and Wyoming, although Wilner points out that “just because there are two people running for a nomination, that doesn’t mean it’s a contested primary that’s going to yield a lot of advertising money.” In some cases, the primary challenger may not be able to raise enough money for advertising. In other cases, such as Wyoming, primary spending may be the only money spent in 2014 because the general election will not be competitive.
Texas, which sees little presidential political spending, will have at least 11 open seats in statewide races in 2014, including governor, attorney general, land commissioner and five judicial spots — a political land grab that hasn’t happened in decades. “There will be serious political money spent in Texas,” Wilner says.