USA TODAY International Edition
Looking for his footing
As Jeb Bush enters race, he faces several hurdles
WASHINGTON Jeb Bush is expected to announce Monday what everyone already knows: He’s running for president.
What’s less clear is whether a splashy sendup in Miami will allow the onetime front- runner to move beyond sagging poll numbers, criticisms of his ability on the stump and questions about his fundraising.
Those who know the former Florida governor don’t seem worried.
“I’ll bet you there are at least a dozen candidates who would very happily trade places with Jeb Bush,” said Tom Rath, a New Hampshire strategist who advised Bush’s father and brother but has yet to get behind a 2016 candidate. “All the advantage that he appeared to have early in this process, he still has. The underpinnings are pretty solid.”
Bush’s announcement comes on the heels of a troublesome few weeks:
Democracy 21 and the Campaign Legal Center have asked the Justice Department and the Federal Election Commission to investigate whether Bush violated campaign finance laws prohibiting coordination between candidates and super PACs.
The groups say that, even though Bush hasn’t officially announced his White House bid, he’s essentially been behaving like a candidate and shouldn’t have been discussing strategy with the Right to Rise super PAC backing his candidacy, or collecting big checks for the PAC. Federal candidates are barred from accepting donations larger than $ 2,700 for a primary election.
Bush’s supporters counter that his actions were legal because he wasn’t an official candidate.
Polls suggest Bush has not risen above the rest of the crowded Republican field, despite reported- ly record fundraising, his credentials as a successful governor of the nation’s largest swing state and a family pedigree that gives him an advantage with the GOP establishment in many states.
Bush is virtually tied with the other two main GOP front- runners, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. And recent polls show him trailing in several key states, including Iowa, Ohio and New York.
He also retains high unfavorability ratings compared with other candidates, partly due to voter disaffection with the Bush family. A CNN/ ORC International poll released June 2 found that 56% of Americans said Bush’s status as the son and brother of former presidents makes them less likely to vote for him.
Questions about Bush’s abili- ties as a campaigner emerged last month after his fumbled response to a question on Fox News about whether he would have ordered an invasion of Iraq if he’d had access to accurate intelligence. Over three days, Bush gave conflicting answers, including an excuse that he misunderstood the question. He finally said he would not have gone to war.
Commentators skewered him for botching a question he should have known was coming.
“Everyone can see that Jeb Bush is doing poorly so far,” analysts at the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics wrote last week. “This Bush intimidates no one. His political skills are rusty, he’s a pedestrian speaker and some of his views ( immigration reform, Common Core, etc.) have made him many enemies among party ideologues.”
Doubts about Bush’s campaign increased recently with news he had shaken up his political team.
Bush’s problems aren’t that different from those affecting former secretary of State Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side, said Susan MacManus, a political science professor at the University of South Florida.
Both face higher expectations and more intense scrutiny than other candidates. Both are linked to political dynasties, with all the disadvantages and advantages that brings. And both have shown some rust due to years away from the campaign trail.
“It’s not surprising that they weren’t perfect,” MacManus said. “But here’s the deal. Every single other ( candidate), once they get in the limelight, ( will) go through the same scrutiny and make mistakes.”
Even if he stumbles in early states, Bush will have the money, the network and the patience to remain in the race until Florida’s March 15 primary, where the winner will capture all of the state’s 99 Republican delegates.
Rath said it’s no time for Bush backers to panic: “They’re not voting tomorrow. Whatever people seem to think has gone wrong, he’s got time to remedy.”
“I’ll bet you there are at least a dozen candidates who would very happily trade places with Jeb Bush.”
Tom Rath, a New Hampshire strategist