USA TODAY International Edition
REPUBLICAN PARTY IS FAR FROM GONE
Those forecasting its demise do so prematurely and mistakenly
You would expect that a political party that recently won a majority in the U. S. Senate, gained strength in the House, captured 31 of 50 governorships and gave 24 of those governors majorities in their legislatures would be basking in predictions of success. But rather than luxuriating in the warm glow of bright prospects, the Republican Party is, in the eyes of some experts, on track for extinction.
The reasons center on demographic forecasts showing groups likely to vote for the GOP in steep decline and Democratic- oriented voters surging. But such “in the long run” predictions resemble those fanciful 1930s prophecies that by 1970, we would be all be commuting by autogiro and living in geodesic domes.
After the 2014 elections, pundits wasted no time in proclaiming the Republican triumph an iridescent dream bound to evaporate in the face of growth in the number of Democrats and a corresponding crash in older white Americans who identify with the GOP.
YOUNG AND MINORITY
The first example of this was an article in Salon by William H. Frey of The Brookings Institution, who wrote that the combination of a doubling of “new racial minorities — Hispanics, Asians and multiracial Americans” — coupled with “the tepid growth of the nation’s aging white population” were a warning to the Republican Party that time was not on its side.
Frey’s somber prediction was echoed in Politico by Daniel J. McGraw, who underscored the point by calculating the number of people who cast votes for Mitt Romney in 2012 who are now dead.
So there it is: A triumphal procession of likely Democrats — young and minority voters — marching boldly along a road to the future lined with the graves of dead Republicans. Add to the young and those of color other pro- Democratic groups such as single women and the poor, and you have a scenario so nightmarish for Republicans that unless they reform radically, they will suffer the fate of the anti- immigrant Know- Nothing Party of the mid- 19th century.
However, there is something wrong with this picture: Populations do not equal voters, and growth in a demographic group will not necessarily cause a commensurate upsurge in likely voters from those groups.
The very groups predicted to swell the numbers of Democrats are also those least likely to show up at the polls, especially in nonpresidential elections. For example, in 2014, voters ages 18- 29 constituted only 13% of the electorate, compared with those 65 and older, who were 22% of those casting ballots.
In 2012, a presidential year, the youngest cohort of voters was a more robust 19%.
TURNING OUT IN 2016
A strong youth turnout in presidential elections favors Democrats, but the falloff of the youth vote in non- presidential elections magnifies the influence of Republican- leaning groups such as seniors. This tends to produce a situation in which, increasingly, Democratic presidents will face a Republican Congress and hostile governors.
Turnout for Democrats is equally underwhelming in nonpresidential years with minorities, most notably African Americans, the most loyal Democrats. The party has been heartened by the rise of Hispanics in the population, but a portion of that rise includes the 11 million undocu- mented residents of the U. S., most of whom are Hispanic and none of whom can legally vote.
Even among those who can, turnout has been dismal. Last year, more than 43% of likely non- voters were identified as non- white. President Obama lamented this anemic contribution to Democratic voting strength shortly after the 2014 elections. But what of 2016?
Intensity of feeling drives participation in elections, and one of the most intense groups has been the backers of Donald Trump. This is partly because of his celebrity and bumptious oratory, but there is an audience out there for the issues he has chosen to emphasize that extends well beyond Trump himself, an unlikely GOP presidential nominee. These issues, captured by a more electable Republican, will certainly enhance GOP turnout in 2016.