USA TODAY International Edition
And then there were 16
Large, chaotic presidential field isn’t doing the Republican Party any favors
Will Rogers was referring to the Democrats in 1935 when he famously wrote that “I am not a member of any organized party.” But a modern humorist could only make the joke work if he or she were talking about Republicans.
The current GOP is the very epitome of disorganization. Its congressional leaders can’t keep their members in line. The national bosses can’t nudge their candidates in the direction they think the party should go, particularly on immigration.
And, perhaps most strikingly, its slate of presidential hopefuls has grown close to unmanageable dimensions, with narcissists, extremists and the merely self- delusional all vying for attention with the more serious candidates.
After Ohio Gov. John Kasich’s entry into the race Tuesday, the GOP has no fewer than 16 candidates for the White House. If former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore jumps in, as expected in early August, the number will rise to 17.
To invoke the horse race cliché, the contest resembles one of those overcrowded Kentucky Derby fields with too many entrants, lots of long shots and no clear favorite. If there’s an American Pharoah in this bunch, it’s not immediately apparent.
A field this big, the largest in the modern era, will severely test the ability of Republican primary voters to make informed deci- sions. Making matters worse, in recent weeks Donald Trump, the buffoonish celebrity billionaire, has glommed the spotlight and risen to the top of the polls.
All of this combines to tell us some things about the state of the GOP.
For starters, it shows that no one is afraid of, or deferential to, the candidate many in the establishment believe would be the most competitive in the general election: Jeb Bush.
Along with his allies, the for- mer Florida governor has raised an astounding $ 114 million. Yet he has neither scared off the flood of new entrants, nor gained any real traction in the polls with an electorate wary of a third Bush presidency or the prospect of another Bush- Clinton race.
Another obvious conclusion is that some candidates are in the race as a career move. In 2008, Mike Huckabee showed how running for president could turn into a lucrative position as a Fox News host. And now, looking at some of this year’s more improbable candidates, it’s hard not to see similar motives. For many, the Oval Office would be a real a stretch, but a TV gig or a job atop some political advocacy group might not be too much to ask for.
The most unavoidable conclusion, however, is that the Republicans brought this on themselves.
One reason that so many people are running is that they can, thanks to an era of unlimited money brought on by GOP office- holders and Republican- nominated judges. In 2012, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and former senator Rick Santorum ran races that were largely sustained by the financial support of a single wealthy individual — casino magnate Sheldon Adelson in Gingrich’s case and money manager Foster Friess in Santorum’s.
While some of the major candidates this year hope to raise money far and wide, the lesser ones merely need to strike the fancy of a billionaire or two. By doing so, they reason, they can remain in the race while others are forced to drop out. The only flaw with this reasoning is that if enough of them find a funding source, there won’t be much of a winnowing.
The irony is that the GOP field this year is actually fairly strong. Kasich, for example, has impressive experience in both Congress and as governor of one of the most important swing states. What’s more, with a Democrat having occupied the White House for two terms, the voters could be in the mood for a change.
Even so, the Republican field is not making a good first impression. And if the party caucuses and primaries play out like a larger version of the 2012 race, with a string of unelectable candidates taking turns atop the polls, the eventual nominee could be at a disadvantage even before the general election contest begins.