USA TODAY International Edition
WHAT’S LOST IN IRANIAN NUKES DEAL
Middle East nations are arming to the hilt with conventional weapons
Lost in the debate over the Iran nuclear agreement is another, potentially more destabilizing nearterm consequence: a newly energized conventional arms race in the Middle East.
The United States and our allies could halt or slow this quiet race by countries in the region to arm themselves to the hilt. But for reasons of guilt, political expediency or simply wanting to win friends, we risk abrogating our responsibilities and touching off a new spiral of lethal firepower.
The widely expressed fear about the Iran deal is over the sudden $ 100 billion windfall of long- frozen assets available to Tehran once economic sanctions come off — funds in theory available to augment the conventional military arsenal it can place at the service of unsavory and destabilizing elements in the region. Let’s assume Iran will spend this windfall on arms rather than, as the CIA has been telling folks, on its severely strained economy. Under terms of the nuclear deal, Iran can’t even begin buying arms with that windfall for five years.
Meanwhile, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, which monitors worldwide sales of weapons, Saudi Arabia spent $ 80 billion on its armed forces last year, including $ 2.6 billion on arms from abroad. The nearby United Arab Emirates spent $ 23 billion, buying $ 1 billion in foreign arms. BUYERS OF U. S. WEAPONS This year, Saudi Arabia is poised to become the largest single market for U. S. weapons sales abroad with $ 2.8 billion already on the books, and that’s before the Iran agreement has been inked.
Even Qatar in May bought 24 Rafale fighters from France for $ 7.1 billion.
As for Iran, during this same two- year period, with the full weight of international sanctions in effect, its arms purchases totaled $ 44 million. But even at the height of its pre- embargo arms purchases in 2006, it bought barely $ 423 million in arms from abroad — a tiny fraction of the purchases by many of its most bitter foes.
Israel, which feels itself most deeply and immediately threatened by Iran’s bellicose statements, will hardly be left out in the cold. Back in February, long before the nuclear accord was concluded and before Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s controversial address to a joint session of the U. S. Congress, Israel had already agreed to $ 3.3 bil- lion in arms purchases from the U. S., including advanced fighter jets, missiles and “bunker- buster” bombs.
This week, in an effort to reassure the region, Defense Secretary Ashton Carter embarked on a swing through Israel, Saudi Arabia and Jordan. Israeli officials were quick to say new arms sales weren’t on the table, but then Tzachi Hanegbi, head of the parliament’s foreign affairs and defense committee, told reporters, “I assume that if Congress fails to change or improve the agreement, we will discuss solutions.” BALANCE OF POWER Critics of the nuclear deal also worry that Russia will leap into the fray with its own massive conventional military sales to Iran as soon as the money’s available. But it’s unlikely the Russians will want to turn over their most advanced weapons systems to Iran. They don’t want to run the risk of the arsenals being turned back someday on them.
The reality is that Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as the oil- rich Persian Gulf emirates, aren’t arming themselves against the possibility of a sudden breakout dash to a nuclear weapon by Iran, though that argument might well resonate on Capitol Hill. Saudi Arabia simply does not want to see Iran as any immediate challenge to its role as regional leader. And Israel wants no break in the uneasy but enduring stability it has managed to maintain in the wake of three major wars and innumerable skirmishes it has won over its Arab neighbors.
The cynical case, of course, is that Iran’s neighbors will use the specter of a newly resurgent Iran to pry more weapons sales out of the West. We shouldn’t succumb. Certainly, our defense contractors will be slavering at the prospect. And doubtless there will be promises made and winks and nods exchanged in the course of the debate over the nuclear accord — particularly because many of these products are made in defense plants vital to many in Congress and their districts.
Even so, this is the very moment when wisdom must trump avarice. The appetites of many in the region are likely to know few bounds, and we can hardly count on all our partners to show the same restraint.