USA TODAY International Edition
FRANCIS A CAMPAIGN WILD CARD
No one knows what he’ll say, but remarks could shake things up
For a century, it was the paranoid political fantasy of Protestant fundamentalists and Know- Nothing nativists: The pope — “the whore of Babylon,’’ they called him, citing the Book of Revelation — would use Catholic immigrants to bend Washington to his will.
On Sept. 24, when Pope Francis becomes the first pontiff to address a joint session of Congress, there’ll be no coup d’etat. But his first U. S. visit could be another wild card in the unpredictable 2016 presidential race, especially if he touches on controversies such as Planned Parenthood funding, global warming, immigration or the Iran nuclear deal.
The unprecedented congressional address has a curious genesis: Francis, a left- leaning pope whom Rush Limbaugh calls a Marxist, was invited by John Boehner, a right- leaning speaker of the House ( as well as a proud Catholic and former altar boy).
Thus, conservative Republicans in the chamber may have to listen to the pope talk about:
Capitalism: Uncontrolled, it will “devour everything which stands in the way of increased profits,” the pope has said, and promote “the idolatry of money.”
Immigration: Francis says immigrants, legal and illegal, are often victims of injustice and deserve support, not the scorn heaped on them by some politicians. He says he considered entering the U. S. from Mexico on his visit to show solidarity with immigrants.
Climate change: In an encyclical ( papal statement) in June, Francis said global warming was real; partly caused by humans; and a problem governments must address more urgently, despite the costs.
Do Republican members — four of whom ( Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, Rand Paul) are presidential candidates — applaud? Sit on their hands? Stick pins in Boehner dolls?
The suspense makes for “fascinating political theater,’’ says Thomas Reese, a Jesuit priest and church observer for The National Catholic Reporter.
He adds: “Boehner must have been crazy to invite him.”
‘ A BRILLIANT POLITICIAN’
It’s hard to predict the political impact of the pope’s visit. But two things are clear:
1. Francis has strong political views and knows how to express them.
Predecessors John Paul II and Benedict XVI were philosopher-theologians who expressed themselves accordingly. Francis, whose background is science ( chemistry), speaks plainly and pointedly.
“If you want a five- star, banner headline insight about this pope, here it is,’’ John Allen, a veteran Vatican watcher, wrote this year in The Boston Globe. “Beneath his humble, simple exterior lies the mind of a brilliant politician.’’ His seemingly off- the- cuff remarks, Allen says, are anything but.
Austen Ivereigh, one of his biographers, agrees. He says the pope believes that in recent years “the church has got boxed into a
right- wing agenda ( gay marriage, abortion, religious freedom) and needs to break out. That means strong messages on immigration, ecology, the death penalty and inequality.”
2. When the pope speaks, so must the presidential candidates.
If the pope says anything newsworthy or controversial, journalists will ask presidential candidates to comment, especially Catholics such as Jeb Bush, Rubio, Martin O’Malley and Chris Christie. That could create what political analyst Nathan Gonzales calls “a domino effect.’’
Consider how the climate change statement played out.
Rick Santorum, a GOP presidential candidate, is a conservative Catholic who believes faith and values have a place in government.
During his 2012 campaign he said John F. Kennedy’s 1960 campaign speech to Baptist ministers about separation of church and state — and about Kennedy’s independence, as a Catholic, from the Vatican — “makes me want to throw up.’’
But when it became clear that Francis would warn of global warming, Santorum stressed the limits of ecclesiastical authority: “The church has gotten it wrong a few times on science,” he said, referring to episodes like the refusal to accept Galileo’s proof that the earth circles the sun. “We’re probably better off leaving science to the scientists.”
Bush also was asked about the encyclical.
“I don’t get economic policy from my bishops or my cardinals or from my pope,’’ he said. “I think religion ought to be about making us better as people and less about things that end up getting into the political realm.”
How to handle a papal hot potato? A candidate “can disagree with the pope, but can’t appear to disrespect him,’’ says Patrick Millsaps, Newt Gingrich’s 2012 campaign manager. “Answer the question in under four seconds and move away.”
Although analysts agree the pope will touch on political issues, no one knows how specific he’ll be.
“The pope is not going to tell people what to think. He’ll tell them what to think about,’’ says David Campbell, a Notre Dame political scientist and co- author of American Grace: How Religion Divides and Unites Us.
And Campbell says what the pope’s been talking about — climate change, economic inequality, the plight of immigrants — “isn’t what most Republicans want to talk about.’’
The pope is popular, but his popularity may be slipping. A Gallup poll in July found that 59% of Americans view him favorably, down from 76% in February 2014. Only 45% of conservatives view him favorably.
A POTENTIAL FOR SURPRISE
But to call Francis a liberal is to ignore the difference between U. S. and Vatican politics. By the conventional left- right divide of the former, the pope is inconsistent — “liberal’’ on climate change and the death penalty, “conservative’’ on abortion and gay marriage.
Which means that, despite the themes he’s emphasized so far in his papacy, he could pull a rabbit out of his hat.