USA TODAY International Edition
Alabama rises to No. 2 in Playoff rankings,
Alabama’s move from fourth to second Tuesday in this week’s College Football Playoff selection committee rankings was unsurprising, given the way the Crimson Tide handled previously unbeaten LSU in Saturday’s 30- 16 victory.
Nor was it terribly surprising to see Notre Dame join the top four, replacing the Tigers, who slipped to No. 9. Besides an impressive victory against Pittsburgh on Saturday, the Fighting Irish have been aided by No. 20 Navy’s standing as the top- rated Group of Five team in this week’s top 25. Notre Dame defeated the Midshipmen 41- 24 on Oct. 10.
As currently situated, three teams in the new top four control their destiny: No. 1 Clemson, No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Ohio State simply need to win out through the end of the regular season to secure spots in one of two national semifinals.
The same cannot be said of Notre Dame, which won’t be able to tout a conference championship in advance of the final ranking; as the committee lists in its selection criteria, conference championships often are tiebreakers among comparable teams. The Fighting Irish do end the year against No. 7 Stanford, however, and a win would boost their résumé at the expense of the Pac- 12 Conference.
Right behind the top four sits No. 5 Iowa, which likewise possesses the opportunity to play its way into the Playoff by defeating Minnesota, Purdue and Nebraska to win the Big Ten West Division and then beating Ohio State in the conference championship game. Essentially, barring a substantial upset, the Big Ten winner is reaching the Playoff.
And where does this leave the Big 12 Conference, which a season ago stood as the only Power Five league not represented in a national semifinal? As seen in the newest rankings — and in a familiar sight for those Big 12 teams in Playoff contention — the conference has ground to make up with the selection committee.
Consider, for example, No. 8 Oklahoma State’s six- spot move after Saturday’s 49- 29 victory at home against TCU. Though the Cowboys’ leap was the biggest of any team from the initial rankings, unbeaten Oklahoma State remains behind one- loss Notre Dame and Stanford.
“Oklahoma State had a good win,” selection committee chairman Jeff Long said. “That’s the first piece of real strength that we’ve seen from them.”
TCU, meanwhile, fell seven spots to No. 15 — a steeper decline than Michigan State, which tumbled six spots to No. 13 after losing on the road to four- win Nebraska. The message from the committee: Beating TCU does not help Oklahoma State as much as losing to Oklahoma State hurts TCU.
That’s a statement in itself as to how the committee views the Big 12 as a whole, as is Iowa’s move ahead of No. 6 Baylor. Though the Hawkeyes’ win against Indiana wasn’t overly impressive at first glance, the team’s leap marked “a recognition by the committee that they were increasingly impressed with Iowa and their body of work,” Long said.
Baylor doesn’t have a win against a team currently with a winning record, he said. “They’re going to get an opportunity to show it. We still feel like they’re a strong team. That’s kind of why they held their place. It’s very difficult to move them up until they’ve played some teams with some strength.”
Each week’s rankings are, in fact, meaningless; the only ranking that matters is the final top 25, unveiled Dec. 6 after conference championship games. But each week’s rankings are important in one sense: The committee will use its top 25 to measure the impressiveness of an individual victory. The trickledown impact of where Big 12 teams stand can be seen in how the committee might view a Baylor win against Oklahoma State or TCU, for example.
The league does have one factor in its corner, however, in a backloaded schedule that matches each of the top four teams in November.
“Baylor’s work is in front of them, and then Oklahoma State still has work in front of them,” Long said. “They both have opportunities to change where that ranking is and move up. The majority of the Big 12’ s strength and their strength of schedule are here on the back end of the season.”
That alone might be enough. Yet Clemson’s road for an undefeated regular season is clear. The Big Ten might very well match two unblemished teams in its conference championship game. The toughest part of Alabama’s schedule is behind it. Notre Dame — and, by extension, Stanford — has another chance to impress Nov. 28.
It’s far too early to eliminate the Big 12, obviously. But after two weeks of rankings, you can say this: For the second season in a row, the Big 12 is the major conference most likely to be left on the outside of the Playoff.