USA TODAY International Edition
50 days: What could go wrong?
Unforeseen obstacles can ditch campaigns
50 days to go. After a campaign that started more than a year ago, nearly every American has formed an opinion of the presidential contenders, millions of dollars in TV ads have been aired, and early voting in some states has begun. But there’s still plenty of time for some sort of development, deliberate or out- of- the- blue, that could alter the trajectory of an unpredictable contest — especially one that has tightened to the margin of error between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump.
Consider the explosions this weekend in New Jersey and New York and the stabbing in Minnesota that may have been inspired by the Islamic State. In short order, both candidates spoke out: Trump demanded toughness; Clinton called for patience until more was known.
Aides in both camps have been braced for these or unexpected turns over the next seven weeks that could scramble a year of strategic planning.
“There’s a sense that everything that happens has more weight than it probably should,” says Katie Packer, deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney’s presidential bid, recalling the final weeks of the 2012 campaign. “You’re trying to focus on everything, and it’s hard to distinguish the things that really deserve your full attention.”
In the final stretch four years ago, she says, Romney’s team didn’t initially realize how much the candidate’s comment in a debate — that he had gathered “binders full of women” to consider for jobs when he was Massachusetts governor — was going
“The traditional model is that bad news helps the challenger, not the incumbent. ... Do the traditional rules apply when the candidates are so idiosyncratic?” Peter Feaver, Duke University
to resonate. And not in a good way.
The challenge in the campaign’s closing weeks, says Democrats’ interim chair Donna Brazile, who ran Al Gore’s campaign in 2000, is to avoid having the “panic- button, emergencyroom world” of those responding to the crisis of the day from overwhelming the campaign’s fundamental game plan.
In past elections, September’s standings haven’t reliably reflected November’s returns. In 2008, Barack Obama and John McCain were tied 46%- 46% in a Pew Research Center poll in mid- September; Obama trounced McCain by 8 percentage points when it counted. In 2000, Gore led George W. Bush by 5 points in September, an advantage that narrowed to half a percentage point of the popular vote on Election Day; Bush carried the Electoral College and won the White House.
The most recent national polls averaged by RealClearPolitics show a race that is all but even, with Democrat Clinton at 45.7%, Republican Trump at 44.2%.
In politics, 50 days can be a very long time. Over the past 50 days, since July 31, Clinton has won a convention bounce in the polls and lost it, been diagnosed with pneumonia and announced changes at the Clinton Foundation to address conflict- of- interest concerns. Trump has overhauled his top political staff, spoken for the first time to largely African- American audiences, outlined some policy specifics and acknowledged that Obama was born in the USA after years of disputing that fact.
The final weeks of past presidential campaigns have been shaken by verbal gaffes and devastating hurricanes, financial meltdowns and hostage crises. This time, the perils are more apparent for Clinton, although there are risks for Trump as well.
Over the next 50 days, what could go wrong? Let’s count four of the possibilities.
1. DEBATE DEBACLE
The three fall debates are the biggest game- changing events on the schedule, the two candidates on stage face- to- face for 90 minutes. For many voters, they are an opportunity to tune in, compare their choices and decide which one they trust to lead the nation.
Moments from past debates have achieved iconic status in American politics. President Ford’s misstatement on Poland, and his delay in correcting it afterward, may have cost him the late- breaking momentum that would have won him re- election in 1976. Ronald Reagan’s compelling closing statement in 1980 sealed his victory. In 2000, Gore’s peculiar behavior — heavy sighing and moving into Bush’s personal space — may have made the difference in a close election.
When Obama seemed disengaged at a debate in 2012, it marked the high point of his opponent’s campaign.
“The Republican Party became very excited about Mitt Romney at that point,” Packer says. “They tasted the potential for victory.” ( Not for long: Obama recovered in the debates that followed and won re- election.)
This time, the stakes at the debates may be higher than they have ever been, given the closeness of the contest and questions about Trump, who has never run for office before. His demeanor and his depth of knowledge are likely to be tested in a way they weren’t in the Republican primary debates, when a plenitude of candidates crowded the stage. Clinton has more political experience and stronger policy chops.
That also may mean the two candidates face disparate definitions of victory, says Packer, a Republican who led an anti- Trump super PAC. “I do think expectations are going to be really high for Hillary and really low for Trump.” 2. STOCK MARKET SWOON The economy seems to be humming along, with an unemployment rate below 5% and a report last week from the Census Bureau that median household incomes scored a record increase in 2015. The sense that more Americans finally are feeling the benefits of the recovery from the Great Recession is one factor behind Obama’s rising approval rating, a major asset for Clinton.
“The economy is in a self- reinforcing, virtuous cycle,” says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics and an adviser to Arizona Sen. John McCain in the 2008 campaign, though Zandi has contributed money to Clinton’s campaign this time. “But the one very likely thing that could happen — we’ll see volatility in financial markets.”
The markets could get rattled if the Federal Reserve Board decides at its meetings this week to raise interest rates. Just the sug- gestion by a member of the Fed a few weeks ago that a rate hike wasn’t off the table sent the Dow Jones tumbling nearly 400 points in a day. A disruption in global energy supplies that sent oil prices skyrocketing also could shake markets.
If good economic news underscores Clinton’s case that things are on the right track, turmoil could reinforce Trump’s argument that the country is headed in the wrong direction.
3. YOU’VE GOT ( E) MAIL
One risk for Clinton isn’t what she might say on the campaign trail now. It’s what she might have written when she was secretary of State years ago. The drama over her use of a private email server has dogged her campaign and isn’t over. Last month, the FBI turned over to the State Department nearly 15,000 additional emails to and from Clinton that investigators recovered. Federal judges handling legal actions over the emails ordered the release of some or all of them — something that could happen before Election Day.
Even if the emails contain little new information, much less some smoking gun, stories about their release would be an unwelcome distraction for Clinton and her campaign, forcing them to deal with questions about her actions and her honesty.
Hackers linked to Russia have leaked emails that seem designed to disrupt the U. S. election. The unauthorized release of emails from the Democratic National Committee just before the party’s convention forced the resignation of party chairman Debbie Wasserman Schultz. Another batch, out last week, showed former sec- retary of State Colin Powell characterizing Clinton as greedy and arrogant while calling Trump “a national disgrace” and “an international pariah.”
Those particular emails presumably didn’t do much good for either candidate.
“The vast, vast majority of voters have already made their judgments about these two candidates, and ... I doubt any last- minute revelations will change those perceptions,” says Democratic strategist Joe Trippi, who has worked on presidential campaigns since 1984 and ran Howard Dean’s 2004 bid for the nomination. Trippi says continuing controversies could affect who bothers to vote.
“If a picture of Donald Trump with David Duke emerged in the final weeks or a corresponding damaging email revelation were to hit Clinton,” he says, “the biggest impact might not be changing anyone’s mind but in stoking turnout against one of them.”
4. WORLD OF WOE
Perhaps the least predictable potential development would be a foreign policy crisis or terrorism attack. There is no shortage of hot spots, and the uncertainty that surrounds the campaign, particularly while a lame- duck president is in the White House, may encourage regimes in such capitals as Moscow and Pyongyang to test the United States.
This month, North Korea held its fifth and most powerful nuclear test, evidence that the reclusive regime had mastered the basics of detonating a nuclear weapon. There is also the threat of terror attacks directed or inspired by the Islamic State, also known as ISIL or ISIS.
“The traditional model is that bad news helps the challenger, not the incumbent,” says Peter Feaver, a professor of political science and public policy at Duke University who served on the National Security Council staff for Presidents Clinton and George W. Bush. “Any bad news should hurt her and reinforce the pressure for change, helping him. But the question in 2016 is, do the traditional rules apply when the candidates are so idiosyncratic?”
The sort of crisis that calls for “calm control and a measured temperament” — for instance, a nuclear showdown with North Korea’s Kim Jong Un — could underscore Clinton’s argument that Trump is too impulsive and combative to be trusted as commander in chief.
A dispute with Iran that called into question the wisdom of the Obama administration’s nuclear deal could rebound to Trump’s benefit, says Feaver, who advised the Bush campaign in 2004. “And an attack on the U. S. homeland, particularly one tagged to ISIS or Syria, would drastically reinforce the Trump narrative.”
Trump spoke out Saturday night after initial reports on the explosions in New York City. “Just before I got off the plane, a bomb went off in New York, and nobody knows exactly what’s going on,” he told a campaign event in Colorado Springs. “But, boy, we are living in a time — we better get very tough, folks. We better get very, very tough.”