USA TODAY International Edition
Big Ten in strong position
Conference has path to place two teams in Playoff
The shock waves resulting from last weekend’s chaotic reshaping of the Football Bowl Subdivision reverberated through the updated College Football Playoff rankings, where only one thing was certain: Alabama leads and everyone else follows.
The Crimson Tide, the lone unbeaten team from a Power Five conference, are as consensus a No. 1 team as seen at any other point in the two- plus- year history of the postseason format. The Tide pass the eye test, as seen most recently in a 51- 3 win against Mississippi State, and they ace the metrics.
Alabama is in firm control of its postseason destiny. As is Clemson despite Saturday’s painful loss to Pittsburgh — the Tigers, down two spots from last week at No. 4, simply need to win out and take the Atlantic Coast Conference championship.
What’s interesting to consider, however, is the potential for a worst- case scenario for the creators of the postseason format: two teams from the same league finishing inside the final top four.
There were no such close calls in 2014 or 2015, despite fears that one league, most likely the Southeastern Conference, would crowd the four- team field. To be fair, the 2014 season did set up the possibility: Mississippi State, Auburn and Mississippi were in the top four in that season’s debut rankings, though none reached the national semifinals — representing the SEC was Alabama, the other team from the league’s West Division.
But with three weeks left before the release of the final rankings, there is reason to believe that the Big Ten stands in reach of making up half the Playoff field.
Ohio State leaped to No. 2 in this week’s rankings, thanks in large part to back- to- back laughers against No. 18 Nebraska and Maryland by matching 62- 3 scores. Michigan stayed at No. 3 despite a close loss to Iowa. Wisconsin remained at No. 7, while Penn State moved up two spots to No. 8 after Auburn and Texas A& M tumbled. Begin with the hypotheticals: Penn State wins out to finish November at 10- 2 overall, 8- 1 in Big Ten play. Likewise with Wisconsin, which would then be 10- 2, 7- 2. Ohio State defeats Michigan on Nov. 26 to move to 11- 1 overall and 8- 1 in league play, while the Wolverines end the regular season at 10- 2, 7- 2.
In this case, Penn State would meet Wisconsin to decide the Big Ten title, with the winner holding a very strong case for a spot in the Playoff even with two losses. The Nittany Lions would have the best overall record in the conference. Wisconsin would hold wins against LSU, Nebraska and Penn State and single- digit losses to Michigan and Ohio State.
The Buckeyes, meanwhile, would tout victories against Tulsa, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nebraska and Michigan.
Here’s what makes the team’s current ranking interesting: Ohio State might give the committee no cause to be dropped in the rankings between now and early December, when the committee will at last weigh conference championships into the equation.
Another asset in Ohio State’s favor is the Big Ten itself. This week’s rankings tell the story: The conference has four teams in the top eight and five in the top 18. In comparison, the SEC has one team in the top 14, though another five teams join Alabama in the top 25.
And even without a conference title, the Buckeyes would have a stronger case than the winner of the Big 12 — especially if the winner is Oklahoma, as might very well be the case.
In this scenario, all that’s needed is for Washington State to beat rival Washington on Nov. 25, giving the Cougars the Pac- 12 North Division and sending the Huskies officially out of the Playoff mix.
Regardless of how things play out, there’s some symbolism to be found in the Big Ten’s potential for postseason dominance.
It was once thought that the SEC would break the Playoff code and send two teams into the field.
But it’s the Big Ten, which has made enormous strides in the last five years, that stands knocking on the door of a postseason first.