USA TODAY International Edition
Bid thieves could shake up men’s bracket
Fringe teams hope to get hot this week
An NCAA tournament bubble team’s worst nightmare is that vexatious bid thief, the team with no legitimate shot at an at- large bid from the selection committee that gets hot and wins its league tournament — and automatic bid.
These are the schools bubble teams such as Illinois State will be rooting against this week. With only so many bids to the tournament available, one fewer could make or break a borderline team’s fate.
Keep in mind, this only applies for conferences expected to get more than one bid.
The Mountain West, for instance, is unlikely to get two bids if front- runner Nevada doesn’t win the league tournament. That conference and leagues such as the Big Ten might have bid thieves who are actually fringe teams because Ohio State and Iowa are hardly hanging on the bubble.
Teams that could steal a bid:
INDIANA Indiana ( 17- 14) was on the bubble for most of February but fell off with five consecutive losses. Recent wins vs. Northwestern and Ohio State show that the Hoosiers are capable of playing like the NCAA tournament- caliber team many expected them to be.
But the Big Ten has no truly dominant team, and the 10thseeded Hoosiers are on the right side of the conference tourney bracket, avoiding league regularseason champion Purdue. Remember, this team has beaten Kansas and North Carolina. A Big Ten tournament title is possible.
UTAH Utah ( 20- 10) also played itself off the bubble, damaging its résumé with a loss to Pac- 12 doormat Oregon State on Feb. 19. But three consecutive victories, including a 30- point thrashing of California on Thursday, point to a potential Pac- 12 tournament title run. The Utes are a No. 4 seed in Las Vegas and would have to beat Oregon and Arizona or UCLA, barring upsets. That won’t be easy.
TENNESSEE The Volunteers ( 16- 15) have lost five of seven, including a deflating loss to LSU that shifted them out of contention for an at- large bid. But a resurgent win against Alabama could stir up good momentum. Tennessee faces bubble team Georgia in the opening round of the Southeastern Conference tournament. If it wins that, it draws Kentucky, which it beat Jan. 24.
MISSISSIPPI Mississippi ( 19- 12) is the No. 6 seed in the SEC tournament in Nashville and has a favorable path to the semifinals, but likely matchups against Florida and Kentucky make for a tall task. Should it win one of those and reach the title game, an at- large bid is not out of the cards for the Rebels, who knocked off South Carolina in the regular- season finale.
HOUSTON The American Athletic Conference is more than likely a two- bid league ( with SMU and Cincinnati) unless a team goes on a sur- prise run. The most likely team to do that is Houston, which is 8- 2 down the stretch, losing to the Mustangs and Bearcats. One reason this team is dangerous: Rob Gray Jr. and Damyean Dotson, who combine to average more than 37 points per game.
RICHMOND The Atlantic 10 has two teams on the bubble in Virginia Commonwealth and Rhode Island, while league champ Dayton is locked in. But there’s no ruling out an upset run from a dark- horse A- 10 team, and Richmond, led by T. J. Cline ( 18.6 points per game), looks to have the best momentum — a four- game winning streak — and chance to shake up the bracket.
LOUISIANA TECH It might come as a surprise to some that midmajor Conference USA could be a two- bid league, but Middle Tennessee State has a résumé to secure an at- large bid should it not win the tournament. If that happens, the Bulldogs ( 22- 9) are the team to do it. They’ve won eight of nine. And remember, Louisiana Tech had three 27- plus- win seasons under current Florida coach Mike White but never reached the NCAAs. If Louisiana Tech wins the tournament, it will go dancing for the first time since 1991.
TEXAS TECH Texas Tech ( 18- 13) has no momentum, having lost four of five. But Chris Beard’s team has beaten Baylor and hung with Kansas. And the postseason sense of urgency might kick in.