USA TODAY International Edition
Britain’s election just became unpredictable
May’s assumed victory now not a certainty as challenger Corbyn goes for upset
British Prime Minister Theresa May’s expected romp to re- election next week has turned into a tighter race that left- wing challenger Jeremy Corbyn hopes will produce a Trump- like upset.
Corbyn and his Labour Party appear to be benefiting from increased voter support for his domestic agenda over that of May’s Conservative Party.
Britain’s planned exit from the European Union, which bitterly divided the country a year ago, does not appear to be a major factor in the outcome of parliamentary elections on June 8.
Recent polls from Survation, ICM and others show May’s lead over Corbyn has narrowed substantially. The Survation poll has May with 43% to Corbyn’s 37%, and the rest of the vote is split among smaller parties. That’s down from an 18- percentagepoint spread a few weeks ago.
The ICM poll shows May with a 12- percentage- point advantage over Corbyn, down from a 22percentage- point lead earlier this month. The YouGov survey, which estimated which districts would be won by each candidate, predicted May would win 310 seats to Corbyn’s 257. A majority of 326 is required to form a government.
YouGov estimated Wednesday that May could fall short of an overall majority in the 650- seat British Parliament by 16 seats. If that happens — a scenario known as a “hung Parliament” — May would need to gain the support of other parties to form a government. Or Corbyn might beat her to it.
“I can’t tell where this will all end up but it is definitely less predictable than it once appeared,” said Tony Travers, a political expert at the London School of Economics. “From the beginning of the campaign May was seen as the empress of all she surveyed. For Corbyn, the bar was so low there was no room for disappointment.”
May’s tough talk on the need to secure a good Brexit deal has failed to provide the results her party expected. And her vows to boost security after a terrorist attack in Manchester last week that left 22 people dead has not appeared to sway potential voters.
Domestic issues such as spending on education and health care appear to be resonating most with Britons.
“May has been telling everyone that this election is about Brexit,” said Peter Kyle, a Labour parliamentarian who is seeking re- election in the party’s only seat in southeast England, in Hove. “But that’s breaking the cardinal rule of politics. The public decides what an election is about.”
Apart from a stumble on the radio this week when Corbyn was unable to recall figures related to his party’s signature child care policy, he has had a relatively gaffe- free campaign. Government figures show about 2 million people ages 34 and under are registered to vote between April 18 and May 22 — 20% higher than in the same period before last June’s EU referendum that passed 51.9% to 48.1%. Younger voters heavily favor Corbyn to May.
“Corbyn is an inspiration as he strives for equality, which is clearly lacking in our society,” said Haden Tye, 21, who works at a university in Plymouth, in southwest England.
“The million- dollar question at this election is will the youth turn out?” said Matthew Goodwin, a politics professor at the University of Kent.
“In an age of spin and presentation, Corbyn comes across as being quite genuine,” said Nigel Farage, one of the architects of Brexit when he led the United Kingdom Independence Party. Farage, who believes Corbyn won’t win next week, expressed admiration for his former political rival.
While Corbyn has struggled to shake off past associations with militant groups such as the IRA and Hamas, Americans may find something familiar and noteworthy about him. He favors protectionism, is wary of NATO and the EU, and believes military adventurism in the Middle East is partly to blame for terrorism at home.
Some of his views “do make him sound like Trump,” Travers said.
“From the beginning of the campaign May was seen as the empress of all she surveyed. For Corbyn, the bar was so low there was no room for disappointment.” Tony Travers, London School of Economics.