USA TODAY International Edition
MLB’s great free agent class withering
This was going to be the mother of all free agent classes, the one leaving baseball executives salivating, knowing that a checkbook alone could instantly turn around the fate of their franchise.
You had Cy Young winners, MVPs, a plethora of All-Stars and two 26-year-old generational superstars.
Well, this lush free-agent landscape is suddenly looking a little more barren.
Oh sure, we still have infielder Manny Machado and outfielder Bryce Harper, who are 25, have been healthy all year and should each sign record-setting deals worth at least $350 million. If not $400 million. Or even $500 million.
There hasn’t been a young, talented commodity like this hit the market since Alex Rodriguez in 2000, when he signed a record 10-year, $252 million contract with the Rangers as a 25-year-old.
Machado (.312, 18 homers and 50 RBI) and Harper (.228, 19 homers, 43 RBI) just might double A-Rod’s deal. The Nationals and Phillies will be the primary suitors for Harper, and the Yankees, Phillies and Cubs are the favorites to land Machado.
Yet once all that money flows that duo’s way, the spigot might stop with the rest of the big paychecks considering the rest of the landscape.
A free agent class that looked so beautiful just a couple of years ago is scarred.
Look what happened alone to the bevy of prized starting pitching.
Jose Fernandez, who would have been 26 and the pitching version of Harper and Machado, is tragically gone.
Matt Harvey, who three years ago was one of the most dynamic pitchers in the game, is just a shell of himself these days, exiled to Cincinnati, trying to resurrect his career and land any contract next winter, let alone a generational one.
Three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, who was supposed to shatter the market for starting pitchers, is back on the disabled list for the fifth time in five years, the third consecutive season with back problems. He’s still expected to opt out of his contract and test free agency, but with $65 million owed to him through 2020, he might wind up simply getting an additional wad of cash — rather than a free agent mint — in the form of a two-year extension from the Dodgers.
Dallas Keuchel, 30, who won the Cy Young in 2015 and a World Series ring three years later with the Astros, is having the worst season of his career. He is 3-8 with a 4.45 ERA and has a 7.33 ERA in his last five starts. He not only has given up more hits, 90, than anyone else in the league, but in an era when strikeouts are at a historical level, he’s generating just 6.9 per game.
David Price is healthy and pitching well these days, but who in their right mind would persuade him to forfeit the $127 million remaining in his Red Sox contract the next four years by opting out at 33?
Oh, and remember that glorious position player market? Beyond Harper and Machado, much of it can be found on the disabled list.
Blue Jays third Josh Donaldson, the 2015 American League MVP, was supposed to receive the highest free agent contract behind Machado and Harper. Yet he’s having the worst season of his career, hitting the DL for the second time this season, and raising eyebrows among baseball executives with his throwing woes. He is hitting .234 with five homers in 36 games and needs a huge second half to get that big payday.
Charlie Blackmon took himself out of the market in April when he signed a sixyear, $108 million extension, leaving A.J. Pollock as the finest outfielder on the market.
Pollock is fabulous when healthy but just can’t stay off the DL. Pollock, who will be sidelined for about another month with a broken thumb, has missed 316 games the last four years and has played more than 137 games in a season once.
Jason Heyward, who’s hitting .248 with a .318 on-base percentage and .362 slugging percentage since signing with the Cubs, isn’t about to walk away from $105 million over the next five years and opt out of his deal.
Braves outfielder Nick Markakis is having his finest season in a decade, leading the league in hits and doubles while batting .327, but he’ll also be 35 in November. Andrew McCutchen is hitting the ball hard in San Francisco, but a .784 OPS for a 32-year-old won’t incite a bidding war.
Royals third baseman Mike Moustakas (.267, 13 homers and 42 RBI) is proving that last year wasn’t a fluke when he hit a franchise-record 38 homers, but after his phone scarcely rang last winter, will anyone do an about-face and pay big money after he turns 30 in September?
Once Machado and Harper sign, it might be the relief market that dominates all of the attention, and even that’s flawed.
Orioles closer Zach Britton, who led the AL with 47 saves two years ago, will only this week throw his first pitch of 2018 after tearing an Achilles tendon.
Cardinals reliever Greg Holland, who saved a National League-leading 41 games last year for the Rockies, has pitched just 131⁄3 innings after signing late, lost his closer’s job and is yielding a 9.45 ERA.
It’ll be up to Red Sox closer Craig Kimbrel to become this year’s Aroldis Chapman.
He might perhaps eclipse Chapman’s five-year, $86 million deal with the Yankees considering he already has 20 saves and has permitted just 15 hits while striking out 38 in 27 innings.
And no free agent reliever’s stock has soared more than Royals closer Kelvin Herrera. He still hasn’t walked a batter, his ERA is 0.73 and he’s just 28.