USA TODAY International Edition
GO-FOR-BROKE CONTESTS REVEAL A CLASH OF VISIONS
Fear plays starring role in this political drama
WASHINGTON – What’s at stake? Democrats warn that the midterm elections Tuesday will undermine the future of America’s democracy unless President Donald Trump’s authoritarian instincts are curtailed. Republicans argue that the nation’s sovereignty is at risk if Democrats prevail.
“Fear is the dominant issue, bar none,” said Jeffrey Engel, director of the Center for Presidential History at Southern Methodist University.
That’s remarkable because the economy is strong and the nation doesn’t face an immediate foreign policy crisis, although there are trouble spots around the world. Instead of a sense of peace and prosperity, the final weeks of the campaign have been dominated by violence and conflict: the mass murder of worshippers at a Pittsburgh synagogue, the mailing of improvised explosive devices to more than a dozen leading Democrats, a caravan of Central American asylum seekers making their way across southern Mexico.
The campaign has crystallized clashing visions of what defines the nation: America First or an increasing-
ly diverse melting pot?
Since his inauguration two years ago, the president has united his party and inflamed the opposing one. Though he isn’t on the ballot, he is at the center of both the conflict and its consequences. The midterm results will shape the second two years of his term and set the landscape for the reelection campaign that already has begin.
The (political) heat is on
The election returns will direct but not dissipate the nation’s political heat. If Democrats win a majority in the House, as nonpartisan analysts and strategists predict, they will gain the authority to launch vigorous congressional oversight of the Trump administration in general and the president in particular.
Democrats hope to win governorships held by Republicans in Rust Belt states that were key in electing Trump – Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. A half-dozen other states that have GOP governors have competitive contests, from swing states such as Florida and Iowa to traditional Republican strongholds in Georgia and Kansas.
Victories in state capitols will have repercussions for congressional redistricting after the 2020 Census and during the 2020 campaign, when presidential nominees could benefit from friendly governors’ statewide standing and their political organizations.
What’s at stake for both parties?
❚ The power to probe. Democrats will get more than a gavel if they win control of the House. They’d gain the ability to set the agenda and the authority to convene hearings, call witnesses and issue subpoenas. Many of the prospective new chairmen already are making plans. At the Judiciary Committee, Rep. Jerrold Nadler, DN.Y., said he would investigate corruption accusations against Trump and allegations of sexual misconduct and perjury against newly confirmed Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh. Rep. Elijah Cummings of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Oversight and Government Reform Committee, said he would pursue alleged fraud and abuse at the White House and in agencies, including the Environmental Protection Agency.
Rep. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., in line to chair the Intelligence Committee, said he would revive the investigation into whether the Trump campaign colluded with Russians who interfered in the 2016 election.
❚ A Senate safety net. Maintaining Republican control of the Senate would make it easier for the White House to win confirmation of judicial nominees and officials in the Cabinet, where turnover is likely. It would make it harder for Democrats, even if they ruled the House, to pass legislation that Republicans didn’t support or that put the White House on the spot.
In the most cataclysmic scenario for Trump, if the House considered articles of impeachment against the president, a GOP-controlled Senate could be a backstop in a trial over whether to remove him from office.
❚ The demography of democracy. The midterms have broken ground in the gender, race, religion and sexual orientation of candidates, mostly Democrats. Among the competitive races, Georgia could become the first state to elect an African-American woman as governor. Kansas and New Mexico could send the first Native American women to serve in Congress.
Michigan and Minnesota are poised to elect the first Muslim women to Congress.
An unprecedented number of women have been nominated by the major parties for office this year, in part spurred by opposition to Trump and by the #MeToo movement. Rutgers’ Center for American Women and Politics reported records at every level: 23 female nominees for the Senate, 237 for the House, 16 for governor.