Stormy forecast could favor GOP

Election Day rain swings 1% of voters, study finds

A potent storm is forecast to blast portions of the eastern U.S. on Election Day with rain, wind and potentially strong thunderstorms.

The foul weather could affect both voter turnout and the election outcome in some battleground states Tuesday: Recent studies have found that Republican candidates tend to have a slight advantage when it rains.

In the Great Lakes and Northeast, wind-driven rain will make for a rough Election Day. Some wind gusts will exceed 40 mph in parts of the Great Lakes, interior Northeast and southeastern New England, the Weather Channel said. The heaviest rain is expected to soak New England and New York state.

Further to the south, in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast, strong to severe thunderstorms are forecast to roar from Philadelphia to Atlanta, the Storm Prediction Center warned. Damaging winds and a few tornadoes are possible as well as locally heavy rainfall, according to the Weather Channel.

In the north-central U.S., some wet snow – or rain changing to snow – is possible from North Dakota to northern Minnesota and Upper Michigan. Light snowfall totals are expected.

Overall, well-below-normal temperatures are forecast in the north-central U.S. Tuesday.

Study: Rain favors Republicans

Republicans may root for rainy weather on Election Day: A recent study revealed that at least 1 percent of voting age adults in the U.S. – people who would have voted for a Democrat had the weather been good – decided instead to cast their ballot for a Republican on rainy election days.

“Our study suggests that weather conditions may affect people’s decisions on not only whether to vote, but also who they vote for,” said study coauthor Yusaku Horiuchi, a professor of government at Dartmouth College.

Apparently on Election Day, rain heightens pessimism and increases fears of risk: “Those who feel in an upbeat mood may lean toward the riskier candidate, while those who feel depressed and anxious lean toward the safer candidate,” the study said.

Thus, “the choice for risk-averse people is to vote Republican,” Horiuchi said.

The study appeared in December 2017 in the journal American Politics Research.