USA TODAY International Edition
Eight X factors may swing playoffs
We’re down to the final eight teams in the NFL playoffs in what’s typically one of the best football weekends of the year. Here’s one X factor for each team in the divisional round.
Colts at Chiefs
Indianapolis: Diversification of pass defense: Defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus has done an excellent job in converting Indy into an aggressive and capable unit, but he might have to alter one of his staples against the Chiefs. The Colts played more zone coverage on defense than any other team in the NFL, according to Rotoworld. And in games that Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes played against teams in the top 25 percent of zone coverage frequency, per Rotoworld, he torched opponents for a 64.1 percent completion rate and a 14-to-0 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Eberflus’ best strategy might be to mix in more man coverage and hope that the pass rush gets home to disrupt Mahomes’ timing.
Kansas City: Pass rush: As the Colts showed against the Texans in the wildcard round, quarterback Andrew Luck is extremely difficult to stop if given ample time to throw. The Colts allowed the fewest sacks (18) in the NFL this season. Against Houston, Indianapolis’ offensive line erased J.J. Watt and Jadeveon Clowney, holding the Texans to no sacks and just four QB hits — a big reason Luck and the Colts rolled up 21 first-half points. But Kansas City tied for first in the NFL with 52 sacks on defense. Generating pressure will be critical in masking a defense that ranked second-tolast against the pass.
Cowboys at Rams
Dallas: Dak Prescott’s legs: As a key first down on a 3rd-and-14 rush late in Dallas’ victory against the Seahawks in the wild-card round showed, the Cowboys’ offense is much more dangerous when Prescott can improvise and use his legs. And even though the Cowboys have flourished since they traded for receiver Amari Cooper, he’ll likely be lined up against Rams cornerback Aqib Talib. If Talib clamps down on Cooper, look for Prescott to try to avoid Aaron Donald and the Rams’ pass rush by scrambling frequently.
Los Angeles: Turnover margin: Under coordinator Wade Phillips this season, the Rams ranked third in the NFL with 30 takeaways and fourth in turnover margin (+11). Protecting the ball and staying aggressive will be paramount against the Cowboys. Dallas had just 17 times giveaways, so turnovers might be tough to come by. But when the Cowboys are careless with the ball, it’s often cost them games. In the Cowboys’ 10 victories in the regular season, they had six turnovers. In their six losses, they were responsible for 11.
Chargers at Patriots
Los Angeles: Stopping defensive end Trey Flowers: New England’s pass rush was putrid this season, tied for 30th with just 30 sacks forced. But Flowers was a lone bright spot, accounting for 71⁄2 sacks and 65 pressures (the latter of which ranked 13th in the NFL). The Patriots like to use him both inside and outside, but Flowers plays predominantly on the left side of the line. That means center Mike Pouncey, right guard Michael Schofield and right tackle Sam Tevi will all have to account for where Flowers is on any given play – and possibly double-team him. The Patriots’ secondary has been sticky this season, but if Philip Rivers has ample time to throw, New England won’t be able to cover receivers forever.
New England: Running back James White: No team in the NFL gave up more receiving yards to running backs in the regular season than the Chargers (973), so it’s safe to expect Tom Brady to dump the ball off to White with regularity on Sunday. White led the Patriots in receptions (87) and receiving scores (seven) and ranked second in receiving yards (751). If Brady looks to feed White quickly, he can also neutralize a pass rush that sacked Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson seven times in the wild-card round.
Eagles at Saints
Philadelphia: Red-zone defense: Everyone will blame Bears placekicker Cody Parkey — whose potential gamewinning field goal inside the final seconds was blocked — for Chicago’s loss in the wild-card round. But the real gamechanger was how Philadelphia’s defense fared near the goal line. The Bears went 0-3 Sunday in the red zone, settling for three field goals. The Eagles led the NFL in the regular season in defensive red-zone percentage, allowing offenses to score touchdowns on just 44.64 percentage of trips inside the 20. They’ll need more of that on Sunday, as New Orleans ranked fourth in the NFL in red-zone offense by reaching the end zone on 69.57 percent of attempts.
New Orleans: Defending Eagles’ tight ends: In New Orleans’ 48-7 thumping of the Eagles in Week 11, the Saints completely erased Philly’s tight ends — Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert — off the field. They combined for two catches for 15 yards on six targets. While that was a very different Eagles team back then (Carson Wentz was starting at quarterback and Nick Foles will play on Sunday), expect the Saints to continue to disguise their zone coverages and jam Ertz and Goedert at the line of scrimmage to throw off the timing of their routes. Philadelphia likes to move Ertz and Goedert all over the field, so the challenge will fall on multiple players.