USA TODAY International Edition
Droves of Dems jam road to 2020
Record-breaking presidential prospects line up
WASHINGTON – Senators and representatives and governors and mayors and billionaires and a former vice president.
Oh, my.
Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., told TV host Stephen Colbert on Tuesday night that she was launching an exploratory committee for a presidential campaign. Earlier in the evening, Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, announced on MSNBC that he was heading out on a tour of the four states that hold the opening contests. In the morning, Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., said even her in-laws signed off on her prospective race. Saturday, former HUD Secretary Julian Castro formally announced his candidacy in his San Antonio hometown. Friday, Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, D-Hawaii, declared she would run, too.
An unprecedented field is gathering for the Democratic presidential nomination – a group smashing records in size and diversity, in generation and geography. A sprawling group of contenders with no front-runner sets the stage for an unpredictable contest – one that is already underway.
At stake is not only the Democratic Party’s nomination but also its direction.
“I don’t know many Democrats who are rolling their eyes and saying, ‘Oh, no, the Democratic primaries are already starting,’ ” said Jennifer Palmieri, a top aide to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign and the author of “Dear Madam President: An Open Letter to the Women Who Will Run the World.”
“Are Democratic voters going to be shopping around or make a quick purchase?” Palmieri asked, then answered: “I think they’re going to shop around.”
In a USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll in December, the 2020 option that generated the most interest among Democratic and independent voters wasn’t an individual; it was an unspecified “someone entirely new.” Nearly six in 10 said they would be “excited” by that prospect, edging out even Joe Biden, the former vice president who is weighing whether to make his third bid for the top job.
About 30 Democratic officeholders and activists have signaled they are considering the contest, and there may be more waiting to be noticed. The field is poised to outpace the 17 credible candidates who competed at some point for the 1976 Democratic nomination, the
“I just think it’s anybody’s ballgame.” Mo Elleithee Institute of Politics and Public Service
largest number ever. For Republicans, a record 17 credible candidates ran at some point for the 2016 nomination.
That was the year the GOP chose Donald Trump. In the 1976 Democratic contest, Jimmy Carter, the one-term governor of Georgia who had been given distant odds, won the Iowa caucuses and the party’s nod.
Lessons learned from that history: The biggest fields can end up nominating the candidates who seemed at the start to be the least likely to prevail.
For the first time, the credible contenders for a major party’s presidential nomination include not only multiple women but also multiple candidates of color. They range in age from their mid-30s (South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, California Rep. Eric Swalwell and Gabbard) to their mid-70s (former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders and Biden).
Even in geography, the contenders hail everywhere from Vermont and Massachusetts to California and Hawaii, from Minnesota and Montana to Texas and Louisiana.
This year’s Democratic contest has become a full employment program for political consultants, especially those who have worked in national campaigns or have experience in such key states as Iowa and New Hampshire. Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who formed an exploratory committee, landed Sanders’ former Iowa caucus director, as well as veterans of the caucus teams for Clinton and Barack Obama.
“The talent race” is one of the early metrics watched as closely as fundraising and name recognition, said Stephanie Cutter, deputy campaign manager for Obama in 2012. The big field speeds up the timetable for candidates to launch, she said: “Unless your name is Joe Biden, you get started earlier.”
What are other potential repercussions of this historic field?
This could go on for a while
The opening Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary about a year from now, followed by the Nevada caucuses and the South Carolina primary, traditionally winnow a field of candidates to a front-runner and a challenger or two. In a big field, a candidate could finish first in a state with just a fraction of the vote, and several candidates could claim slices of the electorate.
Democratic rules require proportional distribution of convention delegates, which means any candidate who garners 15 percent or more of the vote in a state gets some of its delegates. That could keep more candidates in play longer and enable them to divide their attention among states.
On the other hand, there’s California. The nation’s largest state moved up its primary to the earliest date that rules allow, on March 3, 2020, immediately after the opening contests. During early voting, California Democrats could get primary ballots at the same time Iowa Democrats line up for the caucuses. (Texas and seven other states also scheduled their primaries for March 3.)
Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, competing in California depends not on personal contact but on millions of dollars’ worth of media ads, a reality that favors leaders over long shots.
“Candidates are going to have to play a three-dimensional game of chess,” says Mo Elleithee, founding director of Georgetown University’s Institute of Politics and Public Service. “I just think it’s anybody’s ballgame.”
Breaking through is hard to do
Being widely known is an asset, at least at the start. Biden and Sanders would be all but guaranteed to win a seat on the debate stage. Under rules released by the Democratic National Committee last month, participation in a dozen official debates, which will start in June, will be determined by poll standing and grass-roots fundraising.
For less well-known candidates, those who have competed only in a single state or city or congressional district, breaking through can be hard to do.
Nobody may have a lock
To be nominated at the Democratic National Convention in July 2020, in a city yet to be selected, a candidate will need the support of 2,026 delegates. If enough candidates collect delegates through the primaries, it’s possible that even a clear front-runner won’t command the majority he or she needs.
The last time a convention opened without a candidate holding a lock on the nomination was in 1976, in Kansas City, when Republican President Gerald Ford was in the final throes of his battle against challenger Ronald Reagan. The last time multiple ballots had to be held to choose a nominee was at the Democratic convention in 1952.