USA TODAY International Edition
X factors could decide title games
With four teams left in the NFL playoffs facing off in their conference championship games Sunday, it’s not only the star players and obvious trends that will determine the outcomes. In each game, there are players, coaches and tactics simmering below the surface that will help determine who advances to Super Bowl LIII. Here are X factors for each team in the conference title games.
Patriots at Chiefs
PATRIOTS: Pressure or fall back? New England’s plan of sending blitzers while clamping down on receivers in man coverage worked brilliantly against the Chargers in the divisional round. But the Patriots will likely have to alter those tactics against the Chiefs. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, New England pressured Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers on 70.6 percent of his dropbacks, the highest rate he’s faced in any game this season. While Rivers’ numbers against pressure were significantly worse than when he wasn’t, the Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes has excelled when facing a blitz. He posted the league’s second-best passer rating (117.7) and the third-best yards per attempt (8.9) against the blitz in 2018. Rather than using additional bodies to dial up pressure, coach Bill Belichick and defensive play-caller Brian Flores might try to slow Kansas City’s explosive passing game by using complex coverages.
CHIEFS: Rushing defense. This is perhaps the one vulnerability New England is best poised to exploit. The Chiefs ranked 27th in rushing defense, allowing 132.1 yards per game on the ground. The Patriots, over their last seven games, have averaged 158.1 rushing yards. In particular, the emergence of rookie running back Sony Michel and the continued improvement of New England’s offensive line have allowed the Patriots to become a team whose offensive identity is rooted to the ground attack. That ability helps open up playaction passes, so if the Chiefs can’t contain the Patriots’ rush game, they might have trouble keeping New England out of the end zone.
Rams at Saints
RAMS: Running back C.J. Anderson. In the 2018 calendar year, three teams (the Broncos, Panthers and Raiders) parted with Anderson. Los Angeles signed him late in the season as a backup to Todd Gurley and as insurance after Malcolm Brown got hurt. All Anderson has done in three games with the Rams, including one playoff contest, is rush for 422 yards on 66 carries (for 6.4 yards per carry) and four touchdowns. If Los Angeles can get the rushing game going, it might be their best chance at an upset. The Saints, however, ranked second in the NFL, allowing 80.2 rushing yards per game. But if the Rams can move the ball on the ground, they’ll control the clock and keep Drew Brees and New Orleans off the field.
SAINTS: Getting the ball out quickly. Brees has had arguably his most efficient season of his career. A large part of his success stems from his ability to get the ball out of his hands quickly and into those of his playmakers. Including the playoffs, Brees tossed passes this season in an average of 2.59 seconds, third quickest in the NFL. His touchdown-tointerception ratio on passes released in fewer than 2.5 seconds this year was 18to-3. The Rams, though, have been solid against quick throws. They’ve allowed a passer rating of 86.5 (fourth) and a 7to-8 TD-to-interception ratio on throws faster than 2.5 seconds. That tempo is one of the cornerstones of New Orleans’ attack. If Brees and Company can dictate the pace of the game, the Rams could be in trouble.