USA TODAY International Edition
Where did home runs go? Rise and drop in HRs
Batters hit harder, but long balls fell
As the beginning of the baseball season draws near, there’s an unmistakable feeling in the air. Something’s missing.
The most obvious is the absence of several top stars on any MLB team’s roster. As spring training camps opened, Bryce Harper, Craig Kimbrel and Dallas Keuchel were among those unsigned.
That situation should eventually be resolved, but there are a few other things that aren’t so easily addressed.
Starting midway through the 2015 season, balls inexplicably started flying out of ballparks. That continued with even more regularity through 2016 and 2017, the No. 3 and No. 1 homer-heavy seasons in history.
An independent study commissioned by Major League Baseball couldn’t figure out what was different. But thanks to groundbreaking research by astrophysicist Meredith Wills, a culprit emerged:
The laces in the newer baseballs are different — noticeably different. Those used to stitch the seams on the 2016-2017 balls are 9.0 percent thicker than those on the 2014 balls.
Without getting too deep into the science, thicker seams make the ball more spherical and in turn reduce wind resistance. With less resistance, the ball flies farther.
However, something changed in 2018. The number of home runs finally declined for the first time in three seasons
… yet at the same time, Statcast data showed batters hit the ball harder and squared up those hard-hit balls more often than they did a year ago.
Certainly, there could be other factors.
For example, the extremely wet weather last April might have affected the results.
But it seems pretty clear something was different last season. The question becomes: What, if anything, will MLB do about the baseballs?
Shrinking middle class
As home runs declined in 2018, batting average and scoring followed suit. Meanwhile, strikeouts rose, setting a record for the 13th consecutive season.
There’s a growing polarization toward the extreme ends of the spectrum in many traditional statistics.
There’s been a steady decline in steals as analytically minded teams have concluded the value of an extra base often doesn’t outweigh the risk of losing an out by being caught. The best basestealers are successful enough to continue to get the green light, but those whose percentages are lower more often stay put. As a result, 11 players stole 30 or more bases last season and 41 stole at least 15. Meanwhile, six had 30+ steals in 2017, but 52 players had 15 or more.
Likewise in the pitching categories, the elite performers have become more valuable. Thanks in part to the Rays’ implementation of “the opener,” pitchers averaged 51⁄3 innings per start in 2018, the lowest figure in MLB history. As teams make greater use of their bullpens, fewer starters are going deeper into games. (Only 58 starters, not even two a team, qualified for the ERA title last year.) The number of total wins in a season is constant since MLB expanded to 30 teams in 1998. But starting pitchers, outside of the truly elite, aren’t getting wins in large numbers. To a lesser extent, a shift toward bullpen committees and high-leverage relievers have reduced the importance of a saves specialist we commonly call a closer.
Welcome to the majors, Vlad Jr.
There’s always some degree of unknown entering any season, but part of the excitement for this one is the impending debut of Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
The Hall of Famer’s son turned heads in the minor leagues last year by hitting a combined .381 over four levels. At 19. Some scouts have called him the best prospect since Alex Rodriguez.
But even as a non-scout, even I could tell there’s something special about him after watching him play in the Arizona Fall League. In the Fall Stars Game, he hit a rocket that hit the left-field wall so quickly it seemed to defy the laws of physics. I found out it had an exit velocity of 117 mph, a figure only 11 major leaguers reached in the entire 2018 season.
The kid is ready for the majors, even if the Blue Jays choose to start him at Class AAA for a couple of weeks to keep him under contract an additional year.